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The Cost of Carbon Capture and Storage for Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plants

2012; American Chemical Society; Volume: 46; Issue: 6 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1021/es204514f

1520-5851

Edward S. Rubin, Haibo Zhai,

Climate Change Policy and Economics

This paper examines the cost of CO(2) capture and storage (CCS) for natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants. Existing studies employ a broad range of assumptions and lack a consistent costing method. This study takes a more systematic approach to analyze plants with an amine-based postcombustion CCS system with 90% CO(2) capture. We employ sensitivity analyses together with a probabilistic analysis to quantify costs for plants with and without CCS under uncertainty or variability in key parameters. Results for new baseload plants indicate a likely increase in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of $20-32/MWh (constant 2007$) or $22-40/MWh in current dollars. A risk premium for plants with CCS increases these ranges to $23-39/MWh and $25-46/MWh, respectively. Based on current cost estimates, our analysis further shows that a policy to encourage CCS at new NGCC plants via an emission tax or carbon price requires (at 95% confidence) a price of at least $125/t CO(2) to ensure NGCC-CCS is cheaper than a plant without CCS. Higher costs are found for nonbaseload plants and CCS retrofits.