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Statistical modeling of hot spells and heat waves

2010; Inter-Research Science Center; Volume: 43; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.3354/cr00924

1616-1572

Eva Furrer, Richard W. Katz, MD Walter, Reinhard Furrer,

Hydrology and Drought Analysis

CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 43:191-205 (2010) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00924 Statistical modeling of hot spells and heat waves Eva M. Furrer1,4,*, Richard W. Katz1, Marcus D. Walter2, Reinhard Furrer3 1Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA 2Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14850, USA 3Institute of Mathematics, University of Zürich, 8057 Zürich, Switzerland 4Present address: Institute for Social and Preventive Medicine, Biostatistics Unit, University of Zürich, 8001 Zürich, Switzerland *Email: eva.furrer@ifspm.uzh.ch ABSTRACT: Although hot spells and heat waves are considered extreme meteorological phenomena, the statistical theory of extreme values has only rarely, if ever, been applied. To address this shortcoming, we extended the point process approach to extreme value analysis to model the frequency, duration, and intensity of hot spells. The annual frequency of hot spells was modeled by a Poisson distribution, and their length by a geometric distribution. To account for the temporal dependence of daily maximum temperatures within a hot spell, the excesses over a high threshold were modeled by a conditional generalized Pareto distribution, whose scale parameter depends on the excess on the previous day. Requiring only univariate extreme value theory, our proposed approach is simple enough to be readily generalized to incorporate trends in hot spell characteristics. Through a heat wave simulator, the statistical modeling of hot spells can be extended to apply to more full-fledged heat waves, which are difficult to model directly. Our statistical model for hot spells was fitted to time series of daily maximum temperature during the summer heat wave season in Phoenix, Arizona (USA), Fort Collins, Colorado (USA), and Paris, France. Trends in the frequency, duration, and intensity of hot spells were fitted as well. The heat wave simulator was used to convert any such trends into the corresponding changes in the characteristics of heat waves. By being based at least in part on extreme value theory, our proposed approach is both more realistic and more flexible than techniques heretofore applied to model hot spells and heat waves. KEY WORDS: Climate change · Clustering of extremes · Generalized Pareto distribution · Point process approach · Heat wave simulator Full text in pdf format PreviousNextCite this article as: Furrer EM, Katz RW, Walter MD, Furrer R (2010) Statistical modeling of hot spells and heat waves. Clim Res 43:191-205. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00924Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 43, No. 3. Online publication date: October 19, 2010 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2010 Inter-Research.