The Implications of Ice Melt on Arctic Security
2011; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 11; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1080/14702436.2011.590318
ISSN1743-9698
Autores Tópico(s)Arctic and Russian Policy Studies
ResumoClick to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. Canada originally announced the intention to build six to eight Polar Class-5 Arctic/Offshore Patrol Ships in 2007. This was delayed while Canada sought to consolidate the project into a new National Shipbuilding Procurement Strategy. As of May 2011 the project has yet to go to tender, and a planned delivery date of 2014 is highly unlikely. See . 2. Only days before the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, President Obama announced intentions to open oil exploration and drilling in waters off Alaska, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic coast . After only one year following the largest oil spill in history to date, Shell Oil is poised to begin drilling in Alaskan waters. See . 3. Approximately 84 per cent of Arctic oil and gas resources are estimated to be beneath Arctic waters. See Kenneth J.Bird, et al., 'Circum-Arctic resource appraisal; estimates of undiscovered oil and gas north of the Arctic Circle', US Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2008–3049, . 4. Douglas M. Johnson, 'The Northwest Passage Revisited', Ocean Development & International Law, Vol. 33 (2002) p.154. The Arctic Council also includes permanent participants representing first nations, and other organizations such as the Aleut International Association, plus a range of observers (non-Arctic states, inter-governmental and inter-parliamentary organizations, and non-governmental organizations). See . 5. Statement of Scott G. Borgerson, Visiting Fellow for Ocean Governance at the Council on Foreign Relations, Committee on Foreign Affairs, US House of Representatives Washington DC, 25 March 2009. Accessed at . 6. According to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), the Arctic is warming at approximately twice the rate as the rest of the globe. See Susan Joy Hassol, Arctic Climate Impact Assessment: Impacts of a Warming Climate (Cambridge: CUP 2004) p.8. 7. Ibid. p.14. ACIA has concluded that 'reduced sea ice is likely to increase marine access to the region's resources, expanding opportunities for shipping…'. 8. Of the eight standing members of the Arctic Council, five have sovereign territory and littoral territorial waters above the Arctic Circle. Denmark is included because Greenland is Danish sovereign territory. 9. Some second-order effects of Arctic ice melt such as rising ocean levels; ocean desalination and changes in ocean currents are expected to have impacts well beyond the Arctic region. These issues will not be discussed here, except where a clear Arctic security link can be made. 10. Hassol, Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (note 6) p.2. 11. Alun Anderson, 'The Great Melt: The Coming Transformation of the Arctic', World Policy Journal 26/ 4 (Winter 2009) p. 53. 12. For detailed analysis of the correlation between Arctic temperature rise and ice melting cycles, some excellent scientific sources are available. Refer to the ACIA Full Science Report at and Martin Sharp and Libo Wang, 'Five-Year Record of Summer Melt on Eurasian Arctic Ice Caps', Journal of Climate 22/ 1 (Jan. 2009) pp.133–45. 13. R.W. Lindsay et al., 'Arctic Sea Ice Retreat in 2007 Follows Thinning Trend', Journal of Climate 22/ 1 (Jan. 2009) p.174. 14. National Snow and Ice Data Center, 'Arctic Sea Ice Falls to Third-Lowest Extent', . 15. Clive Schofield, and Tavis Potts, 'Across the Top of the World? Emerging Arctic Navigational Opportunities and Arctic Governance', Carbon & Climate Law Review 3/ 4 (30 Dec.r 30, 2009) p.473. 16. See Hassol (note 6) p.83. Cf. International Northern Sea Route Programme (INSRP) data at < http://www.fni.no/insrop/>. 17. Schofield (note 15) p.474. 18. Donat Pharand, 'The Arctic Waters and the Northwest Passage: A Final Revisit', Ocean Development & International Law 38 1/2 (Jan. 2007) pp.3–4. 19. France, Germany, the UK, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland are all observer states on the Arctic Council, and China is a member of the International Arctic Science Committee. Lawson Brigham, ' Navigating the New Maritime Arctic', US Naval Institute Proceedings 135/ 5 (May 2009) p.46. 20. USGS Fact Sheet, 'USGS Arctic Oil and Gas Report: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle', July 2008. Accessed at . 21. Lawson Brigham, 'Update – Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment of the Arctic Council', Conference of Arctic Parliamentarians (Fairbanks, Alaska, 12 Aug. 2008), slide 8. Accessed at . 22. Brigham, 'Navigating the New Maritime Arctic' (note 19) p.43. 23. 'The BP Oil Spill: The Environmental Impact One Year On'. Accessed at . 24. Renate Platzöder (ed.), The 1994 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers 1995) p.1. Also referred to as UNCLOS. 25. Ibid. pp.4–6. 26. Ibid. pp.3, 7. 27. UNCLOS articles 76 and 77 provide far greater detail. Ibid. pp.31–2. For an informative pictorial representation of the issues related to the definition of continental shelves and continental margins, refer to Harald Brekke's presentation 'The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the Delineation of the Outer Limits of the Continental Shelf', at < http://www.continentalshelf.org/_documents/1Brekke.ppt>. 28. Tavis Potts, and Clive Schofield, 'Current Legal Developments – the Arctic', International Journal of Marine & Coastal Law 23/1 (March 2008) p.163. 29. Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf website. For more detail on CLCS activites, refer to . 30. Accessed at< http://www.un.org/Depts/los/clcs_new/issues_ten_years.htm>. 31. Potts (note 28), p.163 32. 'Rules of Procedure of the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf' (CLCS/40), Annex I, . 33. Henning Schröder, 'Russia's National Security Strategy Until 2020', Russian Analytical Digest (62/09) p.10. Accessed 2 May 2010 at . 34. Katarzyna Zysk, 'Russian National Security Strategy to 2020', accessed at . Also refer to her review of Russia's Arctic Strategy 'The fundamentals of state policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic in the period up to 2020 and beyond' at . 35. Mia Bennett, 'Putin's Arctic Visit: Polar Bears, Pollution and (Border) Protection', The Arctic. Accessed at . 36. Mia Bennett, 'Russia and Norway Agree On Border in Barent's Sea', The Arctic. Accessed at . 37. Mark A. Smith and Keir Giles, 'Russia and the Arctic: The Last Dash North' (Shrivenham, England: Advanced Research and Assessment Group, Defence Academy of the United Kingdom, Sept. 2007) p.3. 38. Andrew E. Kramer, 'As Gazprom Goes, So Goes Russia'', New York Times, 11May 2008. Accessed at . 39. Helsinki, 6th Annual Arctic Shipping Summit. 'Opening Address by Dr Paavo Väyrynen, Finnish Minister for Foreign Trade and Development at the 6th Annual Arctic Shipping Summit in Helsinki, 27 April 2010'. Accessed at . 40. Moscow, 'The National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation Until 2020' (No. 537 dated 12 May 2009), accessed at < http://www.scrf.gov.ru/documents/99.html>. Translated via Google Translate. Section 62 states: '[It is] in the interest of national security in the medium term to develop competitive industries and expanded markets for Russian products, increase the efficiency of the energy sector … to meet the strategic objectives of economic development and completion of the formation of basic transport, energy, information, military infrastructure, particularly in the Arctic zone, Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East.' 41. Smith and Giles (note 37) p.1. Russia made an initial claim submission to the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) in 2001, and has follow-on documentation pending. 42. Marcel de Haas, Russia's Foreign Security Policy in the 21stt Century (New York: Routledge 2010) pp.127–8. Russia is planning on creating a brigade-strength military force in the Arctic, which could provide a means to enforce its claims on Arctic territory, waters and resources. 43. From the Canadian national anthem, 'O Canada'. 44. CIA World Fact Book, accessed at . 45. Elizabeth Elliot-Meisel, 'Politics, Pride, and Precedent: The United States and Canada in the Nörthwest Passage', Ocean Development & International Law 40/ 2 (April 2009) p.205. 46. Platzöder (note 24) Part III, pp.12–14. 47. Elliot-Meisel (note 45) p.212. 48. Ibid. pp.211–13. 49. Canada's ten-year window for CLCS claims is based on ratification of UNCLOS. The claim expires in 2013. Refer to the CLCS website at < htpp://www.un.org/Depts/los/clcs_new/issues_ten_years.htm>. 50. Zachary Fillingham, 'Arctic Ownership Claims', Geopolitical Monitor,8 April 2009. Accessed at . 51. Elliot-Meisel (note 45) p.218. The Polar 5 class Arctic/Offshore Patrol Ships will not be capable of year-round operations in the high Arctic. See . 52. Office of the Prime Minister of Canada, 'Backgrounder: Expanding Canadian Forces Operations in the Arctic' (10 Aug. 2007). Accessed at < http://www.pm.gc.ca/eng/media.asp?id=1785>. The Canadian Rangers are part-time reservists who provide a military presence through surveillance and sovereignty patrols in remote, isolated and coastal communities in northern Canada. 53. Rick Rozoff, 'Arctic: Canada Leads NATO Confrontation With Russia', Global Research.ca (5 Aug. 2009). Accessed at < http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=14657>. 54. National Security Presidential Directive (NSPD) 66 'Arctic Region Policy' (dated 9 Jan., 2009), section B para. 1. Accessed at < http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspd/nspd-66.htm>. 55. Ibid., section C, para. 4. Both the Bush and Obama administrations have explicitly supported ratification of UNCLOS, but Congress is the legislative body responsible for US ratification of the treaty. Failure to ratify UNCLOS would mean that the US would be unable to make claims to the CLCS, and it would potentially deny the Americans a 'seat at the table' within CLCS when submissions relevant to their national interests are being discussed. 56. Ibid., section C, para. 2. 57. Ibid., section B, para. 5. 58. Ben Muse, 'Where is the Beaufort Sea Boundary between the US and Canada?' (26 Aug. 2009), . 59. UN, 'Agreement between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Maritime Boundary' (1 June 1990). Accessed at < http://www.un.org/Depts/los/legislationand treaties/pdffiles/treaties/USA-RUS1990mb.pdf>. 60. NSPD 66 (note 54) section D, para. 3. 61. Smith and Giles (note 37) p.5. 62. Matthew Rusling, 'Coast Guard Unprepared for Climate Change in Arctic', National Defense, Vol. 92 Issue 657 (Aug. 2008) p.47; Reuters, 'US Icebreakers Can't Handle Alaskan Oil Spills', . 63. Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 'The Norwegian Government's High North Strategy' (Oslo: 1 Dec. 2006) p.5. 64. Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 'New Building Blocks in the North: The Next Step in the Government's High North Strategy' (Oslo: 12 March 2009) p.36. 65. Alex Anishyuk, 'Norway, Russia Strike Deal to Divide Arctic Undersea Territory', Moscow Times ,7 April 2010. Accessed at . 66. The Norwegian Government's High North Strategy (note 64) pp.8–9. 67. Roger Howard, The Arctic Gold Rush: The New Race for Tomorrow's Natural Resources (London, UK:Continuum2009) pp.55–7. 68. Denmark, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 'Arktis i en brydningstid. Forslag til strategi for aktiviteter i det arktiske område' ['The Arctic in Upheaval: Draft Strategy for Activities in the Arctic'], (May 2008, p.5. Translated via Google Translate. Accessed at < http://www.um.dk/NR/rdonlyres/962AFDC2-30CE-412D-B7C7-070241C7D9D8/0/ARKTISK_STRATEGI.pdf>. 69. Mia Bennett, 'Denmark and Canada on the Hunt for Territory', The Arctic. Accessed at . 70. Tan Wei-en, and Tsai Yu-tai, 'Conflict Resolution and the International Scramble for Natural Resources in the Arctic Circle', Journal of Politics & Law 3/ 1 (March 2010) p.95. 71. Arms Control Association < http://www.armscontrol.org/print/1601>. 72. Andrey Zaitsev and Dmitry Litovkin, 'Americans Ought Not to Upgrade Their Radar in Greenland', Izvestia (10 Aug. 2004). Accessed at . 73. Olav F. Knudson, 'The Emergence of Identity in International Security Affairs: The Case of Greenland', Conference Papers – International Studies Association (9 March 2004) p.11. 74. Alun Anderson, After the Ice: Life, Death and Geopolitics in the New Arctic (London: Virgin Books 2009) pp.33–4. 75. 'The Circumpolar Declaration on Arctic Sovereignty', adopted by the Inuit Circumpolar Council (ICC), April 2009. Accessed at . 76. Ibid. pp.12–13. 77. 'Arctic Council. Senior Arctic Official (SAO) Report to Ministers' (April 2009) Tromsø, Norway, p.3. Accessed at . Both have applied for Permanent Observer status within the Arctic Council. 78. 'Political Declaration on the Northern Dimension Policy' at . 79. 'Council Conclusions on Arctic Issues', (2985th FOREIGN AFFAIRS Council meeting, Brussels: Council of the European Union, 8 Dec. 2009, p.1. Accessed at . 80. Kristine Offerdal, 'Arctic Energy in EU Policy: Arbitrary Interest in the Norwegian High North', Arctic 63/ 1 (March 2010) pp.31–2. 81. 'European Security Strategy: A Secure Europe in a Better World' (12 Dec. 2003) Brussels , European Union, p.1. Accessed at <.http://consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cmsUpload/78367.pdf>. 82. Willy Ostreng, 'There Is No Race for the Arctic', Rianovosti (23 April 2010). Accessed at . 83. Ibid. See for an excellent map showing potential Arctic routes for China's markets in Europe and eastern North America. 84. Linda Jacobson, 'China Prepares for an Ice-Free Arctic', SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security (No. 2010/2, March 2010), p.2. Accessed at . 85. 'Speech by NATO Secretary General, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, on security prospects in the High North' (NATO Defense College Seminar, Reykjavik, Iceland),29 January 2009 Accessed at . 86. Ibid. 87. Ibid. 88. NATO Handbook, Ch. 13, accessed at < http://www.nato.int/docu/handbook/2001/hb130202.htm>. 89. Oksana Antonenko and Bastian Giegerich, 'Rebooting NATO-Russia Relations', Survival 51/ 2 (April 2009) p.13; cf. Dmitri Trenin, 'NATO and Russia: Partnership or Peril?', Current History 108/ 720 (Oct. 2009) p.300. 90. Madeleine Albright chaired an expert panel which drafted NATO's New Strategic Concept (2010). Accessed at < http://www.nato.int/cps/en/SID-5BAF9C4C-AA98C065/natolive/news_63644.htm?>. 91. 'NATO To Melt Arctic Ice As It Triggers Another International Scandal', Pravda (22 Jan.2009). Accessed at . 92. Antonenko (note 89) p.13. 93. Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf website, at . Of the 'Arctic Five' states, only Russia has made a submission to date. At an average rate of two submissions completed per year, the CLCS backlog is at 20 years and growing.
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