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Inflation and Monetary Policy in Russia in January 2016

2016; RELX Group (Netherlands); Linguagem: Inglês

10.2139/ssrn.2757594

1556-5068

Alexandra Bozhechkova,

Global Financial Crisis and Policies

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in January 2016 advanced 1.0% (3.9% in January 2015) and the January median one-year ahead expected inflation rate increased 0.3 percentage points to 16.7%, reaching the highest value since February 2015 when the median one-year ahead expected inflation rate was driven up to 18.1% by the ruble’s devaluation in late 2014/early 2015. Overall, the Russian ruble’s real effective exchange rate is now relatively fundamentally substantiated owing to a free-floating exchange rate regime in the Russian foreign exchange market which faces neither interventions by the Bank of Russia nor panic sentiments of economic agents. We do not anticipate the ruble to depreciate considerably unless new shocks kick in.