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Effects of Policy-Related Variables on Traffic Fatalities: An Extreme Bounds Analysis Using Time-Series Data

1995; Wiley; Volume: 62; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês

10.2307/1060688

2325-8012

Richard Fowles, Peter D. Loeb,

Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies

The determinants of automobile-related fatalities have been of great interest among economists, statisticians and government officials lately. Statistical models and techniques of various degrees of sophistication have been employed to evaluate the potential contributing effects of a host of socioeconomic and policy-related variables on motor vehicle fatality rates.' Loeb [17; 18; 19; 20], Loeb and Gilad [21], Fuchs and Leveson [10] and Crain [5] evaluated the impact of motor vehicle inspection on fatality rates. The Loeb and Loeb and Gilad studies found inspection to have a significant impact on reducing various measures of fatalities as measured by the significance and stability of the coefficient associated with the inspection variable across various specifications. Furthermore, both Crain and Fuchs and Leveson also found some support for the effectiveness of inspection, although Crain does not favor inspection. More recently, Keeler [12] found inspection to be effective in reducing fatalities in 1970 but not in 1980. The effect of raising the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) was evaluated by Cook and Tauchen [4], Asch and Levy [1; 2] and Loeb [19]. Cook and Tauchen found that reducing the MLDA resulted in an increase of fatality rates among youthful drivers. Asch and Levy, as well as Loeb, found the effect of the MLDA on fatality rates either smaller or less significant than reported by others.2 In general, alcohol consumption has been found to have the expected effect on fatality rates, i.e., higher alcohol consumption is associated with higher fatality rates [19; 26]. Interestingly, Fowles and Loeb [8] found an interactive effect of altitude and alcohol on traffic-fatality rates.