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Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations

2016; European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control; Volume: 21; Issue: 15 Linguagem: Inglês

10.2807/1560-7917.es.2016.21.15.30199

1560-7917

Giorgio Guzzetta, Piero Poletti, Fabrizio Montarsi, Frédéric Baldacchino, Gioia Capelli, Annapaola Rizzoli, Roberto Rosà, Stefano Merler,

COVID-19 epidemiological studies

Based on 2015 abundance of Aedes albopictus in nine northern Italian municipalities with temperate continental/oceanic climate, we estimated the basic reproductive number R0 for Zika virus (ZIKV) to be systematically below the epidemic threshold in most scenarios. Results were sensitive to the value of the probability of mosquito infection after biting a viraemic host. Therefore, further studies are required to improve models and predictions, namely evaluating vector competence and potential non-vector transmissions.