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Variations in the hydrological cycle components and their influencing factors in the middle and upper reaches of Tao'erhe River Basin

2009; Wiley; Linguagem: Inglês

1745-5871

XU Ming-xing,

Forest, Soil, and Plant Ecology in China

Taking the middle and upper Tao'erhe River Basin as a study area,this paper analyzes variations of runoff,precipitation and temperature,etc.for the period 1961-2000.Time series analysis of characteristic parameters is used to examine the influences of climate change and land use and land cover change(LUCC) on runoff.And the response of runoff to water resources development(extraction for use) is estimated quantitatively based on the comparison between the observed and natural runoff data of Taonan hydrological station during 1961-2000.Some conclusions are drawn as follows:(1) The observed mean annual runoff is 38.2 m3/s for the past four decades,showing a trend of decrease-increase-decrease.The interannual and seasonal variations of runoff are greatly notable and the mean monthly runoff shows an unobvious trend according to the analysis result with the Kendall method.Over the period,annual precipitation has increased slightly to 427 mm.December's mean precipitation has increased significantly by the analysis result with the Kendall method.The mean annual temperature is 5.48℃ with a much greater value in the second half of the period(1986-2000);(2) The annual natural runoff is positively correlated with annual precipitation,and negatively correlated with annual temperature,and these relationships become weaker over time.Therefore,the increase of annual natural runoff coefficient under the same precipitation frequency may have mainly resulted from the decreasing vegetation cover.A wet year would have more impact on runoff than a dry year;(3) Water resources development decrease the annual runoff depth by 21.2 mm during the period 1986-2000,accounting for 37.1% of the mean annual natural runoff over the 40 years.