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Bayesian Benefits for the Pragmatic Researcher

2016; SAGE Publishing; Volume: 25; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1177/0963721416643289

1467-8721

Eric‐Jan Wagenmakers, Richard D. Morey, Michael Lee,

Statistical Methods and Inference

The practical advantages of Bayesian inference are demonstrated here through two concrete examples. In the first example, we wish to learn about a criminal’s IQ: a problem of parameter estimation. In the second example, we wish to quantify and track support in favor of the null hypothesis that Adam Sandler movies are profitable regardless of their quality: a problem of hypothesis testing. The Bayesian approach unifies both problems within a coherent predictive framework, in which parameters and models that predict the data successfully receive a boost in plausibility, whereas parameters and models that predict poorly suffer a decline. Our examples demonstrate how Bayesian analyses can be more informative, more elegant, and more flexible than the orthodox methodology that remains dominant within the field of psychology.