Portal de Periódicos da CAPES

Dynamical versus statistical downscaling for the generation of regional climate change scenarios at a Western Mediterranean basin: the Jucar river district

2015; IWA Publishing; Linguagem: Inglês

10.2166/wcc.2015.207

2408-9354

Vicente Chirivella, J. Capilla, Miguel Ángel Pérez-Martín,

Tree-ring climate responses

Research Article| November 27 2015 Dynamical versus statistical downscaling for the generation of regional climate change scenarios at a Western Mediterranean basin: the Júcar River District Vicente Chirivella; Vicente Chirivella 1Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camino de Vera, s/n, 46980 Valencia, Spain Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar José E. Capilla; José E. Capilla 1Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camino de Vera, s/n, 46980 Valencia, Spain E-mail: jcapilla@upv.es Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar Miguel A. Pérez-Martín Miguel A. Pérez-Martín 1Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camino de Vera, s/n, 46980 Valencia, Spain Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar Journal of Water and Climate Change (2016) 7 (2): 379–392. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2015.207 Article history Received: August 16 2014 Accepted: October 20 2015 Views Icon Views Article contents Figures & tables Video Audio Supplementary Data Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Cite Icon Cite Permissions Search Site Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentAll JournalsThis Journal Search Advanced Search Citation Vicente Chirivella, José E. Capilla, Miguel A. Pérez-Martín; Dynamical versus statistical downscaling for the generation of regional climate change scenarios at a Western Mediterranean basin: the Júcar River District. Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 June 2016; 7 (2): 379–392. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2015.207 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Reference Manager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex Current climate change (CC) predictions for the Western Mediterranean show a significant increase in temperature, and a decrease in precipitations, with great variability depending on general circulation models (GCM) and downscaling approaches. This paper analyses how dynamic downscaling improves statistically based CC scenarios. The study area was the Júcar River Basin (JB), with results from ECHAM5 GCM, and a close time frame of 2010–2040 appropriated for decision-making. The dynamic downscaling was performed with the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM3. It was applied to a coarse grid over the Iberian Peninsula, and then to a finer grid over the JB. The RCM was customized to reproduce Western Mediterranean climatic conditions using the convective precipitation scheme of Grell; the non-convective scheme was customized by changing the default RHmin and Cptt parameters to reproduce precipitations originated by larger-scale atmospheric circulations. The RCM results, compared to current official Spanish Agency of Meteorology (AEMET) scenarios–statistically based–reproduce much better historical data (used to verify scenarios generation). They foresee a 21.0% precipitation decrease for 2010–2040, compared to previous ECHAM4 predictions with statistical downscaling (−6.64%). The most significant reductions are in February, September and October. Average estimated temperature increase is 0.75 °C, with high increments in July (+3.05 °C) and August (+1.89 °C). climate change, convective precipitation, downscaling, Júcar River Basin, non-convective precipitation, Western Mediterranean © IWA Publishing 2016 You do not currently have access to this content.