The U.S. Economy. . . Stuck in Neutral
2012; Volume: 31; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês
ISSN
1930-126X
Autores Tópico(s)Economic theories and models
ResumoPARTICIPANTS | Beacon Economics = LA, California; Conf Board = Conference Board, New York, New York; Global Insight = Global Insight, Eddystone, Pennsylvania; GSU - EFC = Georgia State University, Economic Forecasting Center, Atlanta, Georgia; Moody's Economy = Moody's Economy, com, Westchester, Pennsylvania; Mortgage = Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, D. C; NAM = National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, D. C; Northern Tr = Northern Trust Company, Chicago, Illinois; Perryman Gp = The Perryman Group, Waco, Texas; Royal Bank of Canada, Canada; SP U.S. Bank = Minneapolis, Minnesota; US Chamber = U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D. C; Wells Fargo = Wells Fargo Bank, San Francisco, California.From all indications (both quantitative such as consensus economic variables included in the forecast tables and qualitative perspectives such as surveys of consumer confidence and business leader's confidence), the U.S. economy appears to be stuck in neutral. Nowhere in the attached tables of forecasts is there any indication of a return to a recessionary state. Nonetheless, spirit of noncommittal prevails. So, the good news may be that we are not backsliding into a downturn yet; the bad news appears to be that we definitely are not going to be growing much anytime soon.Ray Perryman of the Perryman Group summed it up nicely with a comment attached to his forecasts, which cites an air of caution. That caution can be attributed to a whole host of factors including: Concerns over Europe, the looming domestic fiscal cliff, tension in oil-producing regions, a marked slowdown in the Chinese economy, and, of course, the upcoming election. The difficulty with this assessment is that there appears to be little relief in sight or even across an extended view over the horizon.Rajeev Dhawan, Director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University's J. Mack Robinson College of Business calls it the Anticipation Effect. In his most recent press announcement, Dhawan essentially said that both consumer and business confidence are hurting. With that said, if firms are unwilling to take any long-term risks, then most certainly the impact of it will be significant as to the direction of the economy. In addition, if consumers are tending toward a more cautious assessment, then any unnecessary purchases such as the big ticket items of housing and autos will be postponed, contributing to a significant negative ripple effect.Keith Hembre, Chief Economist at U.S. Bank, provided a valuable insight in his recent work when he made the point that the weaker growth trend inevitably leaves the U.S. economy more susceptible to shocks arising from jolts abroad and to domestic policy miscues at home.The Consensus Outlook calls for real GDP to grow at a 1.7% rate over the next four quarters. Current PDI and PCE are expected to grow 2.4% and 3.3%, respectively, over the same time frame. A notable point in the forecast is that the Consensus does not have the nation's unemployment rate declining to under 8% until next fall. …
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