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Análise de incerteza e modelagem de qualidade da água do Rio Uberaba, Minas Gerais

2015; Issue: 37 Linguagem: Inglês

10.5327/z2176-947820159914

2176-9478

Marcos Vinícius Mateus, Júlio César de Souza Inácio Gonçalves, Guilherme Barbosa Lopes, Mônica Hitomi Okura,

Geography and Environmental Studies

The objective in this study was to evaluate the Dissolved Oxygen (DO) profile along an urban stretch in Uberaba River basin and identify the main pollution sources.For this, the study was divided in five stages: (i) water quality evaluation during a hydrologic year; (ii) calibration and validation of the water quality model; (iii) sensibility analysis of the coefficient and entrance data for the model; (iv) uncertainty analysis; and (v) creation of decision-making scenarios.The results show that Lajes Stream is the main pollution source of Uberaba River.The model demonstrated to be reliable, once it could be calibrated and validated.Through the uncertainty analysis, it is possible to show that the probability of Uberaba River to attempt the environmental standard demanded for class 2 (DO≥5.0mg.L -1 ) is practically zero, but it could be raised to 75.3% if the organic polluting load released into the river was decreased in 75%.