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ESTIMATIVAS DO VOLUME DE COMÉRCIO DOS PAÍSES DO BRICS COM O USO DA EQUAÇÃO GRAVITACIONAL

2013; UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SANTA MARIA; Volume: 16; Issue: 16 Linguagem: Inglês

10.5902/2236117010588

ISSN

2236-1170

Autores

Antonio Carlos Cipriani Dal Pizzol, André Filipe Zago de Azevedo,

Tópico(s)

Global Financial Crisis and Policies

Resumo

This paper estimates the bilateral trade flows between the BRICs – Brazil, Russia, India and China – in the next decades. This study employs a gravity model based on a sample of 57 countries. Trade flows and a variety of other data were collected from 2000 to 2007 to enable the estimation of gravity equations that explain the international trade in this period. By using two different estimation methods – OLS and Tobit – a wide set of parameters was generated, with the aim to choose the most adequate equations for the estimations wanted. Finally, these two best parameter sets were arranged and applied on gravity equations, combined with the Goldman Sachs predictions, in order to obtain future estimations of bilateral trade flows between them in three time-scenarios: short term (2010), midterm (2020) and long term (2030). The results show that the ‘intra-BRICs’ trade flows will grow even more than the GDP of these countries, meaning an increase in the interdependence among these economies, contributing to maintain their economic growth.

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