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A Scoring System for Identifying Severe Cases of Influenza-like Illness by Comorbidity and Age - A Nationwide Cohort Analysis

2016; Pensoft Publishers; Volume: 2; Linguagem: Inglês

10.3897/rio.2.e9648

2367-7163

Robert Chen, Cheng‐Chung Fang, Fuh‐Yuan Shih, Chwan‐Chuen King,

Respiratory viral infections research

From 2008 to 2010, there were 319,775 ILI inpatient cases, of which 8.82% entered ICU and 3.83% died at hospital discharge. The significant comorbidity attributes varied in each age stratum: heart failure in any age, non-dialyzed renal insufficiency in any age, cancer in school-age children up to mid-age adults, tuberculosis in the elderly, stroke in adults, congenital anomaly in children and adolescents, transplant in school-age up to adolescents, or HIV in young adults. Comorbidity vector was (heart failure, non-dialyzed renal insufficiency, cancer, tuberculosis, stroke, congenital anomaly, transplant, HIV). Age vector was (1, 1, 6<=age<45, 75<=age, 18<=age<65, 0<age<=18, 6<=age<18, 18<=age<45). Comorbidity score, the dot product of comorbidity vector and age vector, showed significant correlation with hospitalization cost (Spearman rho=0.1885, p<0.0001), and with LOS (Spearman rho=0.1717, p<0.0001). Its ROC area-under-curves (AUC) were 0.7454 with death and 0.6840 with ICU. The risk estimation model could facilitate us to address population measures for upcoming severe influenza epidemics, and further allocate resources optimally.