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Richards Model: A Simple Procedure for Real-time Prediction of Outbreak Severity

2009; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1142/9789814261265_0009

2010-2259

Ying‐Hen Hsieh,

Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research

Series in Contemporary Applied MathematicsModeling and Dynamics of Infectious Diseases, pp. 216-236 (2009) No AccessRichards Model: A Simple Procedure for Real-time Prediction of Outbreak SeverityYing-Hen HsiehYing-Hen HsiehDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Chung Hsing University, Taichung 401, Taiwan, Chinahttps://doi.org/10.1142/9789814261265_0009Cited by:26 PreviousNext AboutSectionsPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsRecommend to Library ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmail Abstract: We propose to use Richards model, a logistic-type ordinary differential equation, to fit the daily cumulative case data from the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreaks in Taiwan, Beijing, Hong Kong, Toronto, and Singapore. This model enabled us to estimate turning points and case numbers during each phases of an outbreak. The 3 estimated turning points are March 25, April 27, and May 24. Our modeling procedure provides insights into ongoing outbreaks that may facilitate real-time public health responses when faced with infectious disease outbreak in the future. This research is supported by NSC of Taiwan under grant (95-125-M005-003). The Singapore part of the work was carried out while the author visited Institute of Mathematical Sciences, National Singapore University. The article was written while the author visited the School of Mathematics at University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, funded by Taiwan CDC grant (DOH95-DC-1407). FiguresReferencesRelatedDetailsCited By 26Mathematical and Statistical Modelling for Assessing COVID-19 Superspreader Contagion: Analysis of Geographical Heterogeneous Impacts from Public EventsConceição Leal, Leonel Morgado and Teresa A. 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