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Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015: a modelling study

2016; Elsevier BV; Volume: 2; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/s2468-1253(16)30181-9

2468-1253

Sarah Blach, Stefan Zeuzem, Michael P. Manns, Ibrahim Altraif, Ann‐Sofi Duberg, David Handojo Muljono, Imam Waked, Seyed M Alavian, Mei–Hsuan Lee, Francesco Negro, Faisal Abaalkhail, Ahmed Ms Abdou, Maheeba Abdulla, Antoine Abou Rached, Inka Aho, Ulus Salih Akarca, Imad Ghazzawi, Saad Al Kaabi, Faryal Al Lawati, Khalid Al Namaani, Y. Al Serkal, Said A. Al‐Busafi, L. Al‐Dabal, Soo Aleman, Abdullah Alghamdi, Abdulrahman Aljumah, Hamad Eid Al‐Romaihi, Monique Andersson, Vic Arendt, Perttu Arkkila, Abdullah M. Assiri, Oidov Baatarkhuu, Abate Bane, Ziv Ben‐Ari, Colm Bergin, Fernando Bessone, Florian Bihl, Abdul Rahman Bizri, Martin Blachier, Antonio Javier Blasco, Carlos Eduardo Brandão‐Mello, Philip Bruggmann, Cheryl Brunton, Filipe Calinas, Henry Lik‐Yuen Chan, Asad Chaudhry, Hugo Cheinquer, Chien‐Jen Chen, Rong‐Nan Chien, Moon Seok Choi, Peer Brehm Christensen, Wan‐Long Chuang, Vladimir Chulanov, Laura Cisneros, Mette Rye Clausen, Matthew Cramp, Antonio Craxı̀, Esther Croes, Olav Dalgård, Jorge Daruich, Victor de Lédinghen, Gregory J. Dore, Manal H. El‐Sayed, Gül Ergör, Gamal Esmat, Chris Estes, Karolin Falconer, Elmoubasher Farag, Maria Lúcia Gomes Ferraz, Paulo Roberto Abrão Ferreira, Robert Flisiak, Soňa Fraňková, Ivane Gamkrelidze, Ed Gane, Javier García‐Samaniego, Amir Ghafoor Khan, Ilias Gountas, Adrian Goldis, Magnús Gottfreðsson, Jason Grebely, Michael Gschwantler, Mário G. Pessôa, J. Gunter, Behzad Hajarizadeh, O. Hajelssedig, Saeed Hamid, Waseem Hamoudi, Angelos Hatzakis, Sayed Himatt, Harald Hofer, Irena Hrstić, Yee-Tak Hui, Béla Hunyady, Ramazan İdilman, Wasim Jafri, Rohani Jahis, Naveed Z. Janjua, Peter Jarčuška, Agita Jēruma, Jón G. Jónasson, Yasser Kamel, Jia‐Horng Kao, Sabahattin Kaymakoğlu, David Kershenobich, Jawad Khamis, Young Sam Kim, Loreta A. Kondili, Zaher Koutoubi, Mel Krajden, Henrik Krarup, Moon-sing Lai, Wim Laleman, Wai‐Cheung Lao, Daniel Lavanchy, Pablo Lázaro, Henri Leleu, Olufunmilayo Lesi, Laurentius A. Lesmana, Michael Li, Valentina Liakina, Young‐Suk Lim, Boris Lukšić, Adam Mahomed, Matti Maimets, Mihály Makara, Abraham O. Malu, Rui Tato Marinho, Paul Marotta, Stefan Mauss, Muhammad Sadik Memon, Maria Cássia Mendes Corrêa, Nahúm Méndez‐Sánchez, Shahin Merat, Ammal M. Metwally, Rosmawati Mohamed, Christophe Moreno, Fadi H. Mourad, Beat Müllhaupt, Kimberly Murphy, H. Nde, Richard Njouom, Diana Nonković, Suzanne Norris, Solomon Obekpa, Stephen Oguche, Sigurður Ólafsson, Marián Oltman, Ogu Omede, Casimir Omuemu, Ohene Opare‐Sem, Anne Øvrehus, Shirley Owusu‐Ofori, Tsendsuren Oyunsuren, George Papatheodoridis, Ken Pasini, Kevork Peltekian, Richard Odame Phillips, Nikolay Pimenov, Hossein Poustchi, Nishi Prabdial‐Sing, Huma Qureshi, Alnoor Ramji, Devin Razavi‐Shearer, Kathryn Razavi‐Shearer, Berhane Redae, H. W. Reesink, Ezequiel Ridruejo, Sarah Robbins Scott, Lewis R. Roberts, Stuart K. Roberts, William Rosenberg, Françoise Roudot‐Thoraval, Stephen Ryder, Rifaat Safadi, Olga Sagalova, Riina Salupere, Faisal M. Sanai, J.F. Sánchez-Ávila, Vivek A. Saraswat, Rui Sarmento‐Castro, Christoph Sarrazin, Jonathan Schmelzer, Ivan Schréter, Carole Seguin‐Devaux, Samir R. Shah, Ala I. Sharara, Manik Sharma, A. Shevaldin, Gamal Shiha, William Sievert, Mark Sonderup, Kyriakos Souliotis, Danutė Speičienė, Jan Šperl, Peter Stärkel, Rudolf Stauber, Catherine Stedman, Daniel Struck, Tung‐Hung Su, Vana Sypsa, Soek‐Siam Tan, Junko Tanaka, Alexander J. Thompson, Ieva Tolmane, Krzysztof Tomasiewicz, Jonas Valantinas, Pierre Van Damme, Adriaan J. van der Meer, Ingo van Thiel, Hans Van Vlierberghe, Adriana Vince, Wolfgang Vogel, Heiner Wedemeyer, Nina Weis, Vincent Wai‐Sun Wong, César Yaghi, Ayman Yosry, Man‐Fung Yuen, Evy Yunihastuti, Aasim Yusuf, Eli Zuckerman, Homie Razavi,

Hepatitis B Virus Studies

BackgroundThe 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of—and expansion on—the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64–103) viraemic infections in 2013.MethodsWe developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data.FindingsModels were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5–79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively).InterpretationThe global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections.FundingJohn C Martin Foundation.