Russia and Europe's Mutual Energy Dependence
2010; Columbia University; Volume: 63; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês
ISSN
0022-197X
AutoresChristophe‐Alexandre Paillard,
Tópico(s)Russia and Soviet political economy
ResumoIn the field of energy, will be confronted with various risks in the next twenty years. Most notably, there is no clear alternative to fossil energy on large scale with the possible exception of nuclear energy; yet few countries are able to pay for the large investment required by nuclear industry. The need to ensure greater energy security and better regulation of energy supplies will turn energy policy into much more politicized issue. Energy, already an important security concern, will continue to shape future military and political relations, especially if there is no other option other than oil and gas to satiate growing demand. Many energy security issues in take strong east-west slant for geographic reasons: Russia is close to Europe; it possesses huge oil and gas reserves; and it is natural energy supplier for the European Union. Economic and political interdependence between Russia and is obvious over the long term, though it may seem less so in the short term, given Russia's reactions to recent energy projects in the region. It is estimated that natural gas will constitute 22 to 29 percent of all world energy supplies in 2030, with the increase in demand stemming primarily from new gas power plants built in the next twenty years. (1) Natural gas is expected to be the second most important source of energy in Europe, just behind oil and shoulder to shoulder with coal (nuclear and renewable energy being distant fourth and fifth respectively). (2) Indeed, the European Commission's Second Strategic Energy Review of 2008 forecasts that Europe will continue to rely on oil and gas imports until 2020, despite efforts to switch to low-carbon economy. (3) EUROPEAN UNION GAS: BETWEEN DEPENDENCE AND COMPETITION To understand the tricky energy relationship between and Russia, one must first understand Gazprom, the three main east-west gas pipeline projects currently underway, and the Russian oil and gas industries. (4) [FIGURE 1 OMITTED] The future of European gas markets is dependent on three gas pipeline projects: two supported by Russia (Nord Stream and South Stream) and one by and Turkey (Nabucco), whose aims are to bring Caucasian gas to Europe. The Nord Stream pipeline project or North European Gas Pipeline (NEGP) is planned offshore pipeline running from Vyborg (Karelia) in Russia to Greifswald in Germany. The plan is to build two parallel pipes delivering 27.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year to Europe; the first pipe is to be built in 2010-2011 and the second in 2011-2012. The estimated cost of the project is 15-16 billion [euro]. The project is managed by two German energy companies, BASF and E.ON, with each holding 20 percent of the shares; the Dutch gas company N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie has 9 percent of the shares and the Russian gas company Gazprom has the remaining 51 percent. This consortium is negotiating to sell the French company, GDF SUEZ, about 9 percent of the shares. This new interest in pipeline development is consequence of the latest Russia-Ukraine gas crisis of 2009 which culminated in the temporary cutoff of gas delivery to Europe. On the NEGP project, the positions of different European actors are quite divergent. The European Commission's energy commissioner confirmed the commitment to building the pipeline, but the European Parliament cautiously noted that the project contained a wide political and strategic dimension for both the European Union and Russia ... [and a] lack of institutional structures capable of responding adequately to the environmental and geopolitical security issues associated. (5) More recently, in January 2010, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski labeled the Nord Stream pipeline project a waste of European consumers' money. (6) In order to mitigate European opposition, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder was appointed head of the shareholders' committee and former Finnish Prime Minister Paavo Lipponen was hired as consultant. …
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