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Predicting try scoring in super 14 rugby union – the development of a superior attacking team scoring system

2011; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 11; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/24748668.2011.11868565

2474-8668

E. F. H. Lim, Brendan Lay, Brian Dawson, Karen E. Wallman, Scott Anderson,

Sports injuries and prevention

The aim of this study was to determine if consecutive periods of attacking superiority, as determined by a developed Team Attacking Superiority (TAS) scoring system, could predict try scoring in Super 14 rugby. Game data from 9 games where the Crusaders, Force and Lions played each other in the 2006, 2007 and 2008 competition seasons were analysed. A Player Impact Ranking matrix, developed in an earlier study (Lim et al., 2009), was modified to create a Team Impact Ranking (TIR) matrix. The TIR was then used to calculate the TAS scores to assess consecutive periods of attacking dominance by a team. Results showed that 67% of tries scored resulted from teams maintaining 3 consecutive TAS periods or less. Although the majority of tries scored were from ≤ 3 consecutive TAS periods, odd ratios revealed that teams were 11.76 times more likely to convert TAS periods into tries scored if they were able to attain 4 or more TAS periods.