The U.S. Economy. A Glimmer of Hope
2013; Volume: 32; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês
ISSN
1930-126X
Autores Tópico(s)Global Financial Crisis and Policies
ResumoThe information in this forecast is gathered by the Journal from sources it considers reliable. Neither the Journal nor the individual institutions providing the data guarantee accuracy; nor do any of them warrant in any way that use of the data appearing herein will enhance the business or investment performance of companies or individuals who use them.PARTICIPANTS | Beacon Economics = Los Angeles, California; Conf. Board = Conference Board, New York, New York; Global Insight = Global Insight, Eddystone, Pennsylvania; GSU - EFC = Georgia State University, Economic Forecasting Center, Atlanta, Georgia; Moody's Economy = Moody's Economy.com, Westchester, Pennsylvania; Mortgage = Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, D.C.; NAM = National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, D.C.; Northern Tr = Northern Trust Company, Chicago, Illinois; Perryman Gp = The Perryman Group, Waco, Texas; Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; SP UBS = UBS Bank, Salt Lake City, Utah; US Bank = U.S. Bank & Nuveen Capital Asset Management, Minneapolis, Minnesota; US Chamber = U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D.C.; Wells Fargo = Wells Fargo Bank, San Francisco, California.The Consensus Outlook is cautiously optimistic; it appears that there are some positive developments on the horizon. This premise is supported by those who are always so kind in sharing their insightful analysis. Dr. Ray Perryman believes that the economy is growing steadily but unspectacularly. He further adds that consumer confidence is rising and investors are buoyed by the continuing wave in monetary policy. But sufficient uncertainty remains to prevent substantial momentum; however, recent fears about a double dip,'which were never justified, have receded. John Silvia, Chief Economist for Wells Fargo, directs attention to the positive developments in housing markets nationwide and that inflationary pressures seem subdued. Despite some slowing in the nearest time frame and cognizant of below long-term trend growth, Mr. Silvia stands firm with his positive outlook. In his recent analysis, he notes strength in auto and retail sales. His team believes that residential construction will be a bright spot over time. Finally, he states that there exists no evidence to believe that derailment is likely from the current growth trend. Dr. Rajeev Dhawan, Director of the Economic Forecasting Center, J. Mack Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University, offers an intellectually stimulating analysis of the economy based on what he calls the present 'Disconnect' highlighting positive market results, e.g., progress in the Dow despite strong fundamentals in place. Undoubtedly, the downside risks to the outlook are great, nonetheless there seems to exist the slightest hint of optimism. …
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