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Tephra Fallout Hazard Assessment for VEI5 Plinian Eruption at Kuju Volcano, Japan, Using TEPHRA2

2017; IOP Publishing; Volume: 71; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1088/1755-1315/71/1/012002

1755-1307

Tomohiro Tsuji, Michiharu Ikeda, Hiroshi Kishimoto, Koji Fujita, Naoki Nishizaka, Kozo Onishi,

Landslides and related hazards

Tephra fallout has a potential impact on engineered structures and systems at nuclear power plants. We provide the first report estimating potential accumulations of tephra fallout as big as VEI5 eruption from Kuju Volcano and calculated hazard curves at the Ikata Power Plant, using the TEPHRA2 computer program. We reconstructed the eruptive parameters of Kj-P1 tephra fallout deposit based on geological survey and literature review. A series of parameter studies were carried out to determine the best values of empirical parameters, such as diffusion coefficient and the fall time threshold. Based on such a reconstruction, we represent probabilistic analyses which assess the variation in meteorological condition, using wind profiles extracted from a 22 year long wind dataset. The obtained hazard curves and probability maps of tephra fallout associated to a Plinian eruption were used to discuss the exceeding probability at the site and the implications of such a severe eruption scenario.