A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
2017; Seismological Society of America; Volume: 88; Issue: 5 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1785/0220170045
ISSN1938-2057
AutoresE. H. Field, T. H. Jordan, M. T. Page, K. R. Milner, Bruce E. Shaw, Timothy E. Dawson, G. P. Biasi, Tom Parsons, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrew J. Michael, Ray J. Weldon, Peter M. Powers, K. M. Johnson, Yuehua Zeng, K. R. Felzer, N. van der Elst, Christopher Madden, R. Arrowsmith, Maximilian J. Werner, Wayne Thatcher,
Tópico(s)Seismology and Earthquake Studies
ResumoResearch Article| July 12, 2017 A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) Edward H. Field; Edward H. Field aU.S. Geological Survey, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS‐966, Denver, Colorado 80225‐0046 U.S.A., field@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Thomas H. Jordan; Thomas H. Jordan bUniversity of Southern California, Southern California Earthquake Center, 3651 Trousdale Parkway Number 169, Los Angeles, California 90089‐0742 U.S.A., Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Morgan T. Page; Morgan T. Page cU.S. Geological Survey, 525 S. Wilson Avenue, Pasadena, California 91106 U.S.A., Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Kevin R. Milner; Kevin R. Milner bUniversity of Southern California, Southern California Earthquake Center, 3651 Trousdale Parkway Number 169, Los Angeles, California 90089‐0742 U.S.A., Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Bruce E. Shaw; Bruce E. Shaw dLamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York 10964 U.S.A., Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Timothy E. Dawson; Timothy E. Dawson eCalifornia Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, MS‐520, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A., Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Glenn P. Biasi; Glenn P. Biasi fUniversity of Nevada Reno, Nevada Seismological Laboratory, 1664 N. Virginia Street, MS‐174, Reno, Nevada 89557 U.S.A., Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Tom Parsons; Tom Parsons gU.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, MS‐999, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A., Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Jeanne L. Hardebeck; Jeanne L. Hardebeck hU.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, MS‐977, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A., Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Andrew J. Michael; Andrew J. Michael hU.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, MS‐977, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A., Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Ray J. Weldon, II; Ray J. Weldon, II iDepartment of Earth Sciences, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon 97403‐1272 U.S.A., Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Peter M. Powers; Peter M. Powers aU.S. Geological Survey, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS‐966, Denver, Colorado 80225‐0046 U.S.A., field@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Kaj M. Johnson; Kaj M. Johnson jDepartment of Geological Sciences, Indiana University, 1001 E. 10th Street, Bloomington, Indiana 47405 U.S.A., Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Yuehua Zeng; Yuehua Zeng aU.S. Geological Survey, Denver Federal Center, P.O. Box 25046, MS‐966, Denver, Colorado 80225‐0046 U.S.A., field@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Karen R. Felzer; Karen R. Felzer cU.S. Geological Survey, 525 S. Wilson Avenue, Pasadena, California 91106 U.S.A., Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Nicholas van der Elst; Nicholas van der Elst cU.S. Geological Survey, 525 S. Wilson Avenue, Pasadena, California 91106 U.S.A., Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Christopher Madden; Christopher Madden kCollege of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, 104 CEOAS Administration Building, Corvallis, Oregon 97331‐5503 U.S.A., Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Ramon Arrowsmith; Ramon Arrowsmith lSchool of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 876004, Tempe, Arizona 85287‐6004 U.S.A., Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Maximilian J. Werner; Maximilian J. Werner mSchool of Earth Sciences and Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Queen's Road, Bristol BS8 1RJ, United Kingdom, Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Wayne R. Thatcher Wayne R. Thatcher hU.S. Geological Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, MS‐977, Menlo Park, California 94025 U.S.A., Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Seismological Research Letters (2017) 88 (5): 1259–1267. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220170045 Article history first online: 15 Sep 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Edward H. Field, Thomas H. Jordan, Morgan T. Page, Kevin R. Milner, Bruce E. Shaw, Timothy E. Dawson, Glenn P. Biasi, Tom Parsons, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrew J. Michael, Ray J. Weldon, Peter M. Powers, Kaj M. Johnson, Yuehua Zeng, Karen R. Felzer, Nicholas van der Elst, Christopher Madden, Ramon Arrowsmith, Maximilian J. Werner, Wayne R. Thatcher; A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Seismological Research Letters 2017;; 88 (5): 1259–1267. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220170045 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietySeismological Research Letters Search Advanced Search ABSTRACT Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐term (hours to years) probabilities of distributed seismicity, constrained by earthquake‐clustering statistics. Comprehensive datasets on both hazard scales have been integrated into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self‐consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more than a century, and it is the first capable of evaluating the short‐term hazards that result from multievent sequences of complex faulting. This article gives an overview of UCERF3, illustrates the short‐term probabilities with aftershock scenarios, and draws some valuable scientific conclusions from the modeling results. In particular, seismic, geologic, and geodetic data, when combined in the UCERF3 framework, reject two types of fault‐based models: long‐term forecasts constrained to have local Gutenberg–Richter scaling, and short‐term forecasts that lack stress relaxation by elastic rebound. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.
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