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Uncertainty in monthly GHI due to daily data gaps

2017; Elsevier BV; Volume: 157; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.solener.2017.08.080

1471-1257

Carlos M. Fernández-Peruchena, Antonio F. Amores,

Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics

The common presence of gaps in solar irradiance series led to the development of new methods for quantifying uncertainty in evidence, and new schemes of inference from uncertain data. The uncertainty of monthly Global Horizontal solar Irradiation (GHI) averages is assessed in this study by investigating the impact of different amounts of daily data gaps. This paper quantifies the uncertainty in the calculation of monthly GHI values in the presence of daily gaps as a function of the monthly clearness index, ktm (ratio of the monthly GHI to its corresponding extraterrestrial solar irradiation at the same plane). The results indicate an inverse relation between ktm and GHI uncertainty due to daily data gaps: for the least clear skies (minimum ktm), even just a single day missing introduces an uncertainty four times bigger than the best scenario. This difference increases with the number of missing days.