Detection of Drought Cycles Pattern in Two Countries (Sudan and South Sudan) by Using Standardized Precipitation Index SPI
2017; Volume: 7; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês
ISSN
2166-4633
AutoresYousif Elnour Yagoub, Zhongqin Li, Omer Said Musa, Muhammad Naveed Anjum, Feiteng Wang, Zhang Bo,
Tópico(s)Climate change impacts on agriculture
ResumoThe aim of this research was to investigate the drought cycles in two countries (Sudan and South Sudan) by using characteristics of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) during 1961-2013 to provide valuable information for better adaptation and mitigation of consequences of drought to create a strategically good planning. This study compared the effectiveness of SPI on a long-term scale of (1, 3, 12, 24, 36 and 48 months lead time) drought conditions. The SPI 12-month showed high frequency of droughts in 1966 - 1968, 1974, 1984 - 1985, 1991 - 1992, 2000 - 2003, 2005 - 2006 and 2010. A high frequency of an annual-SPI mild drought was found in: Portsudan, Dongala, Shendi, Khartoum, Alfashir, Geneina, Malakal, Juba and Wau; moderate drought in: Portsudan, Halfawadi, Karrima, Abuhamed, Atbara, Gadarif and Edduim; severe drought in: Aroma, Kassala, Wadmedani, Edduim, Elobeid, Zalingei and Geneina; and extreme drought in: Gadarif, Singa, Abunama, Edduim, Elobeid, Alfashir and Zalingei. Increasing trend of drought, which was associated with the decreasing tendency of precipitation, would reduce the natural vegetation and crop covers as well as livestock production. In fact, this research has revealed that ongoing droughts caused by a decrease in precipitation would eventually reduce the natural vegetation cover, croplands, and livestock production.
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