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GCM-related uncertainty in river flow projections at the threshold for “dangerous” climate change: the Kalu Ganga river, Sri Lanka

2017; Taylor & Francis; Volume: 62; Issue: 14 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1080/02626667.2017.1381965

2150-3435

L. Schulz, Daniel G. Kingston,

Flood Risk Assessment and Management

The Kalu Ganga catchment is one of the largest in Sri Lanka, and is home to 5% of the national population. A first assessment is provided here of the sensitivity of Kalu Ganga runoff to a 2°C increase in global mean temperature – the supposed threshold for "dangerous" climate change. Runoff is simulated using the HBV-Light hydrological model and scenario data from seven general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation is the strongest cause of change in runoff. Substantial inter-GCM differences in scenario precipitation lead to uncertainty in the direction of change in mean annual runoff from the baseline (range −25% to +19%). Scenario monthly runoff ranges from −41% to +124% of the baseline values at its most extreme (March); June is the only month with a consistent direction of change (range −17% to −65%) – thus indicating that climate change may lead to a substantially different hydrological regime in the Kalu Ganga catchment.