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Modeling long-term fluctuations in the distribution and abundance of Engraulis anchoita eggs and larvae in the southeastern Brazilian bight

2017; Inter-Research; Volume: 587; Linguagem: Inglês

10.3354/meps12375

1616-1599

JM Favero, Mário Katsuragawa, Maria de Lourdes Zani‐Teixeira, JT Turner,

Marine Biology and Ecology Research

MEPS Marine Ecology Progress Series Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsTheme Sections MEPS 587:159-173 (2018) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps12375 Modeling long-term fluctuations in the distribution and abundance of Engraulis anchoita eggs and larvae in the southeastern Brazilian bight Jana M. del Favero1,2,*, Mario Katsuragawa1, Maria de L. Zani-Teixeira1, Jefferson T. Turner2 1Instituto Oceanográfico/Universidade de São Paulo, Praça do Oceanográfico, 191, São Paulo, SP 05508-120, Brazil 2School for Marine Science and Technology, 706 S. Rodney French Blvd., University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, New Bedford, MA 02744-1221, USA *Corresponding author: delfaverojana@gmail.com ABSTRACT: Most data sets of ichthyoplankton contain a high frequency of zeros, and, not considering the possible inflation of zero counts, as in most studies, may result in incorrect model predictions. Thus, we modeled abundance of Engraulis anchoita eggs and larvae sampled during 18 oceanographic cruises conducted between 1974 and 2010 using zero-inflated (ZI) models. ZI models are mixture models with 2 components: (1) containing false zeros (due to design, survey or observer errors) modeled using a binomial generalized linear model (GLM); (2) containing abundance data that may produce zeros (true zeros), and modeled with a negative binomial GLM (ZINB). Although ZINB has been used in other areas of research, we are not aware of its previous use for ichthyoplankton. Common to larvae and eggs, the probability of false zeros was lowest in the southern area of the southeastern Brazilian Bight and higher at deeper station depths. The probability of false zeros was higher in 0.505 mm mesh-size samples than in 0.333 mm mesh only for eggs. Egg and larval abundance was negatively related to temperature in the count portion of the model; only larval abundance was negatively related to salinity. Egg abundance was higher in years sampled with 0.333 mm mesh under conditions of moderate/strong El Niño. The high interannual variability in the abundance and distribution of eggs emphasizes the importance of long-term studies to better understand patterns of fluctuations in the occurrence of ichthyoplankton that are related to environmental conditions. KEY WORDS: Zero-inflated models · Engraulidae · Ichthyoplankton · Brazil Full text in pdf format Supplementary material PreviousNextCite this article as: Favero JM, Katsuragawa M, Zani-Teixeira ML, Turner JT (2018) Modeling long-term fluctuations in the distribution and abundance of Engraulis anchoita eggs and larvae in the southeastern Brazilian bight. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 587:159-173. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps12375 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in MEPS Vol. 587. Online publication date: January 25, 2018 Print ISSN: 0171-8630; Online ISSN: 1616-1599 Copyright © 2018 Inter-Research.