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UTILIZAÇÃO DE TÉCNICAS DE REGRESSÃO LOGÍSTICA NA AVALIAÇÃO DE VAZÕES MÁXIMAS DO RIO DOCE, NO MUNICÍPIO DE COLATINA, ES, BRASIL

2017; UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SANTA MARIA; Volume: 39; Issue: 3 Linguagem: Inglês

10.5902/2179460x24998

ISSN

2179-460X

Autores

Wanderson de Paula Pinto, Gemael Barbosa Lima, Edson Zambon Monte, Claudinei A. Montebeller,

Tópico(s)

Geography and Environmental Studies

Resumo

This research aimed to evaluate the impacts of maximum rainfall in watershed of the Rio Doce in the probability of flooding alertflow in the municipality of Colatina, ES, Brazil, using Logit model. To this, it were considered the rainfall stations of the locationsof Aimorés, Tumiritinga, Conselheiro Pena and Resplendor in the Minas Gerais state and Baixo Guandu, Itaguaçu, Itarana andColatina in the state of Espírito Santo, beyond fluviometric station in Colatina municipality, during the period from 01/01/1986to 31/12/2014. The results of the logistic regression model shown significant impacts of the maximums rainfall in Tumiritinga,Aimorés, Baixo Guandu and Colatina in the probability of occurrence of episodes of flood warning in Colatina, ES. Moreover, itwas observed that in periods with higher volumes of rain (spring and summer), the chance of occurrence of a warning flow eventin Colatina increased significantly. Lastly, it is hoped that this article can support actions aimed at flood control.

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