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The Empirical Study of the Efficiency of the Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on National Currency

2017; Springer International Publishing; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1007/978-3-319-68285-3_7

2198-7254

Oksana A. Karpenko, Daria P. Karpova, Elena M. Grigorieva, Elena V. Savenkova, Andrey V. Guirinskiy,

Economic and Technological Developments in Russia

This paper studies the efficiency of the impact of oil price, key interest rate and inflation on the exchange rates in the Russian Federation. The authors researched the effect of oil prices and other economic variables on the currency rate of dollar to ruble. The regression model has accurately shown this interrelation. The impact of macroeconomic variables and close interrelation between the exchange rate of dollar to ruble and oil prices is revealed. Oil price is a dominating factor in a exchange rate mechanism in Russia. When world oil prices are stabilized and sanctions are cancelled, currency fluctuations and uncertainty will be minimized. The monetary policy of Russian Central bank is to become less rigid, but focused on decrease of the inflation rate and on stabilization of national currency rate.