Near‐Real‐Time Modeling of Landslide Impacts to Inform Rapid Response: An Example from the 2016 Kaikōura, New Zealand, Earthquake
2018; Seismological Society of America; Volume: 108; Issue: 3B Linguagem: Inglês
10.1785/0120170234
ISSN1943-3573
AutoresTom Robinson, Nick Rosser, Tim Davies, Thomas Wilson, Caroline Orchiston,
Tópico(s)Fire effects on ecosystems
ResumoResearch Article| March 27, 2018 Near‐Real‐Time Modeling of Landslide Impacts to Inform Rapid Response: An Example from the 2016 Kaikōura, New Zealand, Earthquake Tom R. Robinson; Tom R. Robinson aDepartment of Geography, Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE, United Kingdom, tom.robinson@durham.ac.uk Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Nick J. Rosser; Nick J. Rosser aDepartment of Geography, Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE, United Kingdom, tom.robinson@durham.ac.uk Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Tim R.H. Davies; Tim R.H. Davies bDepartment of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch 8041, New Zealand Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Thomas M. Wilson; Thomas M. Wilson bDepartment of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch 8041, New Zealand Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Caroline Orchiston Caroline Orchiston cCentre for Sustainability, University of Otago, Dunedin 9016, New Zealand Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Tom R. Robinson aDepartment of Geography, Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE, United Kingdom, tom.robinson@durham.ac.uk Nick J. Rosser aDepartment of Geography, Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE, United Kingdom, tom.robinson@durham.ac.uk Tim R.H. Davies bDepartment of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch 8041, New Zealand Thomas M. Wilson bDepartment of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch 8041, New Zealand Caroline Orchiston cCentre for Sustainability, University of Otago, Dunedin 9016, New Zealand Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 27 Mar 2018 Online Issn: 1943-3573 Print Issn: 0037-1106 © Seismological Society of America Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2018) 108 (3B): 1665–1682. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170234 Article history First Online: 27 Mar 2018 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Tom R. Robinson, Nick J. Rosser, Tim R.H. Davies, Thomas M. Wilson, Caroline Orchiston; Near‐Real‐Time Modeling of Landslide Impacts to Inform Rapid Response: An Example from the 2016 Kaikōura, New Zealand, Earthquake. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2018;; 108 (3B): 1665–1682. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170234 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyBulletin of the Seismological Society of America Search Advanced Search Abstract Reliable methods for the near‐real‐time modeling of landslide hazard and associated impacts that follow an earthquake are required to provide crucial information to guide emergency responses. After the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in New Zealand, we undertook such a near‐real‐time modeling campaign in an attempt to pinpoint the location of landslides and identify the locations where roads and rivers had been blocked. The model combined an empirical analysis of landslide hazard (based on previously published global relationships) with a simple runout model (based on landslide reach angles). It was applied manually, with a first iteration completed within 24 hrs of the earthquake and a second iteration (based on updated shaking outputs) within ∼72 hrs. Both models highlighted the expectation that landsliding would be widespread and that impacts to roads likely meant that the township of Kaikōura was cut off from the surroundings. These results were used by responders at the time to formulate aerial reconnaissance flight paths and to identify the risk that landslide dams could cause further damage. Subsequent model verification based on available landslide inventories shows that although these models were able to capture a large percentage of landslides and landslide impacts, the outputs were overpredicted, limiting their use for pinpointing the precise locations of triggered landslides. To make future versions of the model more useful for informing emergency responses, continued work must be done on modification and adaptation of the approach so that this overprediction is minimized. Nevertheless, the results from this study show that the model is a promising initial attempt at near‐real‐time landslide modeling and that efforts to automate the approach would greatly increase the utility and speed of modeling in future earthquakes. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.
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