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Exploring Magnitude Forecasting of the Next Earthquake

2018; Seismological Society of America; Volume: 89; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1785/0220180034

1938-2057

Yosihiko Ogata, Koichi Katsura, Hiroshi Tsuruoka, Naoshi Hirata,

Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis

Research Article| June 13, 2018 Exploring Magnitude Forecasting of the Next Earthquake Yosihiko Ogata; Yosihiko Ogata aThe Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Inter‐University Research Institute Corporation, 10‐3, Midori‐Cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190‐8562, Japan, ogata@ism.ac.jpcAlso at Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Bunkyo‐Ku, Tokyo, Japan. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Koichi Katsura; Koichi Katsura aThe Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Inter‐University Research Institute Corporation, 10‐3, Midori‐Cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190‐8562, Japan, ogata@ism.ac.jp Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Hiroshi Tsuruoka; Hiroshi Tsuruoka bEarthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1‐1‐1, Yayoi, Bunkyo‐Ku, Tokyo 113‐0032, Japan Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Naoshi Hirata Naoshi Hirata bEarthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1‐1‐1, Yayoi, Bunkyo‐Ku, Tokyo 113‐0032, Japan Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Yosihiko Ogata aThe Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Inter‐University Research Institute Corporation, 10‐3, Midori‐Cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190‐8562, Japan, ogata@ism.ac.jpcAlso at Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Bunkyo‐Ku, Tokyo, Japan. Koichi Katsura aThe Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Inter‐University Research Institute Corporation, 10‐3, Midori‐Cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190‐8562, Japan, ogata@ism.ac.jp Hiroshi Tsuruoka bEarthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1‐1‐1, Yayoi, Bunkyo‐Ku, Tokyo 113‐0032, Japan Naoshi Hirata bEarthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1‐1‐1, Yayoi, Bunkyo‐Ku, Tokyo 113‐0032, Japan Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 13 Jun 2018 Online Issn: 1938-2057 Print Issn: 0895-0695 © Seismological Society of America Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1298–1304. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180034 Article history First Online: 13 Jun 2018 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Yosihiko Ogata, Koichi Katsura, Hiroshi Tsuruoka, Naoshi Hirata; Exploring Magnitude Forecasting of the Next Earthquake. Seismological Research Letters 2018;; 89 (4): 1298–1304. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180034 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietySeismological Research Letters Search Advanced Search ABSTRACT Almost all forecasting of the magnitude of the next earthquake has assumed the same independent probability distribution, such as the Gutenberg–Richter (G‐R) law, with the same b‐value (⁠b=0.9 in Japan region standard), throughout an earthquake sequence. Identifying a broadened forecasting procedure for general models of space–time magnitude sequences may enhance the information gain of earthquake forecasts. This article explores and evaluates three such models for earthquake magnitude forecasting. The first model forecasts magnitudes by location‐dependent b‐values; the second model forecasts magnitudes by space–time weighted moving average of the short‐term past and neighboring magnitude sequence; and the third forecasts based on short‐term tightness of clustering among earthquakes. The forecasting performances of these models estimated in a learning period are shown at each time in a testing period. Except for the last example, the forecasts do not outperform the baseline G‐R law with the b‐value of 0.9. We discuss the reasons by some residual analysis. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.