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Detection of Gutenberg–Richter b‐Value Changes in Earthquake Time Series

2018; Seismological Society of America; Volume: 108; Issue: 5A Linguagem: Inglês

10.1785/0120180091

1943-3573

Bernhard Fiedler, Sebastian Hainzl, Gert Zöller, M. Holschneider,

Seismology and Earthquake Studies

Research Article| August 21, 2018 Detection of Gutenberg–Richter b‐Value Changes in Earthquake Time Series Bernhard Fiedler; Bernhard Fiedler aInstitute of Mathematics, University of Potsdam, Karl‐Liebknecht‐Straße 24‐25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany, bfiedler@uni-potsdam.de Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Sebastian Hainzl; Sebastian Hainzl bGFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Gert Zöller; Gert Zöller aInstitute of Mathematics, University of Potsdam, Karl‐Liebknecht‐Straße 24‐25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany, bfiedler@uni-potsdam.de Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Matthias Holschneider Matthias Holschneider aInstitute of Mathematics, University of Potsdam, Karl‐Liebknecht‐Straße 24‐25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany, bfiedler@uni-potsdam.de Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Bernhard Fiedler aInstitute of Mathematics, University of Potsdam, Karl‐Liebknecht‐Straße 24‐25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany, bfiedler@uni-potsdam.de Sebastian Hainzl bGFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany Gert Zöller aInstitute of Mathematics, University of Potsdam, Karl‐Liebknecht‐Straße 24‐25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany, bfiedler@uni-potsdam.de Matthias Holschneider aInstitute of Mathematics, University of Potsdam, Karl‐Liebknecht‐Straße 24‐25, 14476 Potsdam, Germany, bfiedler@uni-potsdam.de Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 21 Aug 2018 Online Issn: 1943-3573 Print Issn: 0037-1106 © Seismological Society of America Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2018) 108 (5A): 2778–2787. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120180091 Article history First Online: 21 Aug 2018 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Bernhard Fiedler, Sebastian Hainzl, Gert Zöller, Matthias Holschneider; Detection of Gutenberg–Richter b‐Value Changes in Earthquake Time Series. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2018;; 108 (5A): 2778–2787. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120180091 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyBulletin of the Seismological Society of America Search Advanced Search Abstract The Gutenberg–Richter relation for earthquake magnitudes is the most famous empirical law in seismology. It states that the frequency of earthquake magnitudes follows an exponential distribution; this has been found to be a robust feature of seismicity above the completeness magnitude, and it is independent of whether global, regional, or local seismicity is analyzed. However, the exponent b of the distribution varies significantly in space and time, which is important for process understanding and seismic hazard assessment; this is particularly true because of the fact that the Gutenberg–Richter b‐value acts as a proxy for the stress state and quantifies the ratio of large‐to‐small earthquakes. In our work, we focus on the automatic detection of statistically significant temporal changes of the b‐value in seismicity data. In our approach, we use Bayes factors for model selection and estimate multiple change‐points of the frequency–magnitude distribution in time. The method is first applied to synthetic data, showing its capability to detect change‐points as function of the size of the sample and the b‐value contrast. Finally, we apply this approach to examples of observational data sets for which b‐value changes have previously been stated. Our analysis of foreshock and aftershock sequences related to mainshocks, as well as earthquake swarms, shows that only a portion of the b‐value changes is statistically significant. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.