Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change
2018; American Association for the Advancement of Science; Volume: 361; Issue: 6405 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1126/science.aan5360
ISSN1095-9203
AutoresConnor Nolan, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Judy R M Allen, Patricia M. Anderson, Julio L. Betancourt, Heather Binney, Simon Brewer, Mark B. Bush, Brian Chase, Rachid Cheddadi, Morteza Djamali, John Dodson, Mary E. Edwards, William D. Gosling, Simon Haberle, Sara C. Hotchkiss, Brian Huntley, Sarah Ivory, Peter Kershaw, Soo-Hyun Kim, Claudio Latorre, Michelle Leydet, Anne‐Marie Lézine, Kam‐biu Liu, Yao Liu, Anatoly Lozhkin, Matt S. McGlone, Rob Marchant, Arata Momohara, Patricio I. Moreno, Stefanie Müller, Bette L. Otto‐Bliesner, Caiming Shen, Janelle Stevenson, Hikaru Takahara, Pavel E. Tarasov, John Tipton, Annie Vincens, Chengyu Weng, Qinghai Xu, Zhuo Zheng, Stephen T. Jackson,
Tópico(s)Species Distribution and Climate Change
ResumoImpacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.
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