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Changes in the spatial–temporal patterns of droughts in the Brazilian Northeast

2018; Wiley; Volume: 19; Issue: 10 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1002/asl.855

1530-261X

Ana Paula Martins do Amaral Cunha, Javier Tomasella, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Matthew Brown, Sâmia Regina Garcia, Sheila B. Brito, M. A. de Carvalho,

Flood Risk Assessment and Management

In Northeast Brazil (NEB), severe droughts have high socioeconomic impacts. In this study, the spatial–temporal characteristics of drought were evaluated based on a new drought index at 4‐km spatial resolution, derived from regional empirical relationships between a remote sensing‐based index and rain‐gauge‐based standardized precipitation index (SPI), a well‐known drought meteorological index. This index was used to compare the spatial pattern of severe drought events (1982–1983, 1992–1993, 1997–1998, and 2012–2013) of the last 30 years. Strong El Niño related droughts were found to be generally spatially limited, affecting around 30% of NEB and concentrated in the northern part of the region, while 2012 drought, which was not El Niño related, was widespread, reaching 46% of NEB. These results stressed the importance of analyzing droughts at the subregion scale using data with higher spatial resolution. Statistically significant trends ( p < 0.05) toward drier conditions detected in the SPI time‐series were linked to the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming trend, which result in an increased drought risk and social vulnerability in the region.