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Critical Assessment of Parameter Estimation Methods in Models of Biological Oscillators

2018; Elsevier BV; Volume: 51; Issue: 19 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.ifacol.2018.09.040

2405-8971

Jake Alan Pitt, Lucian Gomoescu, Constantinos C. Pantelides, Benoît Chachuat, Julio R. Banga,

Control Systems and Identification

Many biological systems exhibit oscillations in relation to key physiological or cellular functions, such as circadian rhythms, mitosis and DNA synthesis. Mathematical modelling provides a powerful approach to analysing these biosystems. Applying parameter estimation methods to calibrate these models can prove a very challenging task in practice, due to the presence of local solutions, lack of identifiability, and risk of overfitting. This paper presents a comparison of three state-of-the-art methods: frequentist, Bayesian and set-membership estimation. We use the Fitzhugh-Nagumo model with synthetic data as a case study. The computational performance and robustness of these methods is discussed, with a particular focus on their predictive capability using cross-validation.