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Mathematical modelling for characterising and forecasting the water supplying system condition in Lajeado (RS)

2018; MedCrave Group; Volume: 2; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.15406/ijh.2018.02.00109

2576-4454

Alexandre André Feil,

Water resources management and optimization

Characterising water consumption in relation to total population growth is essential for managing water resources in a particular region.This study aims at characterising the water supply system called Companhia Riograndense de Saneamento (CORSAN) at Lajeado (RS) from 2000-2007.And by this characterisation we wish to write to forecast future water consumption for the population in CORSAN SAA at Lajeado, to check whether it is probable or not a water scarcity collapse.In the characterising stage we used collected data tabulation and pairing by Microsoft® Excel 2003.In the 2008-2032 data forecasting we employed the LAB Fit Curve Fitting by the chi-square method through time series whose data refer to the 2000-2007 period.We used this software to indicate the most useful function taking into consideration, the reduced chi-square value and correlation and determination coefficients.This study showed the brink of collapse if the current rate of consumption and discharge are kept, providing for authorities the chance to take preventive actions.In the 2008-2032 data forecasting we employed the LAB Fit Curve Fitting which provides the mathematical model functions ordered by the least chi-square method, providing the increase profile, the chi-square value fit into the non-rejection zone, and correlation and determination coefficients.Results for characterising stage were fulfilled, and in the future forecasting stage we have found that the CORSAN physical structure at Lajeado set in 2007 will supply the population up to mid-2026 provided that the same levels of production and water consumption are maintained.