The Comeback Kid: Donald Trump on Election Day in 2016
2018; Cambridge University Press; Volume: 52; Issue: 2 Linguagem: Inglês
10.1017/s1049096518001622
ISSN1537-5935
AutoresSeth C. McKee, Daniel A. Smith, M. V. Hood,
Tópico(s)Qualitative Comparative Analysis Research
ResumoABSTRACT The surprise outcome of the 2016 presidential election continues to raise more questions as experts grapple with the evidence for why most prognosticators considered a Hillary Clinton victory almost certain. This article uses the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study data to show that a primary explanation for why the election of Donald Trump was difficult to predict is that the bulk of his support did not materialize until Election Day, in the battleground states that he had to carry to win the Electoral College.
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