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An Updated Recurrence Model for Chilean Subduction Seismicity and Statistical Validation of Its Poisson Nature

2018; Seismological Society of America; Volume: 109; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1785/0120170160

1943-3573

Alan Poulos, Mauricio Monsalve, Natalia Zamora, Juan Carlos de la Llera,

Earthquake Detection and Analysis

Research Article| November 27, 2018 An Updated Recurrence Model for Chilean Subduction Seismicity and Statistical Validation of Its Poisson Nature Alan Poulos; Alan Poulos aNational Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management (CIGIDEN), CONICYT/FONDAP/15110017, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago 7820436, Chile, alan.poulos@cigiden.cl, mauricio.monsalve@cigiden.cl, natalia.zamora@cigiden.cl, jcllera@ing.puc.cl Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Mauricio Monsalve; Mauricio Monsalve aNational Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management (CIGIDEN), CONICYT/FONDAP/15110017, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago 7820436, Chile, alan.poulos@cigiden.cl, mauricio.monsalve@cigiden.cl, natalia.zamora@cigiden.cl, jcllera@ing.puc.cl Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Natalia Zamora; Natalia Zamora aNational Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management (CIGIDEN), CONICYT/FONDAP/15110017, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago 7820436, Chile, alan.poulos@cigiden.cl, mauricio.monsalve@cigiden.cl, natalia.zamora@cigiden.cl, jcllera@ing.puc.cl Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Juan Carlos de la Llera Juan Carlos de la Llera aNational Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management (CIGIDEN), CONICYT/FONDAP/15110017, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago 7820436, Chile, alan.poulos@cigiden.cl, mauricio.monsalve@cigiden.cl, natalia.zamora@cigiden.cl, jcllera@ing.puc.clbAlso at Department of Structural and Geotechnical Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago 7820436, Chile. Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Alan Poulos aNational Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management (CIGIDEN), CONICYT/FONDAP/15110017, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago 7820436, Chile, alan.poulos@cigiden.cl, mauricio.monsalve@cigiden.cl, natalia.zamora@cigiden.cl, jcllera@ing.puc.cl Mauricio Monsalve aNational Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management (CIGIDEN), CONICYT/FONDAP/15110017, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago 7820436, Chile, alan.poulos@cigiden.cl, mauricio.monsalve@cigiden.cl, natalia.zamora@cigiden.cl, jcllera@ing.puc.cl Natalia Zamora aNational Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management (CIGIDEN), CONICYT/FONDAP/15110017, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago 7820436, Chile, alan.poulos@cigiden.cl, mauricio.monsalve@cigiden.cl, natalia.zamora@cigiden.cl, jcllera@ing.puc.cl Juan Carlos de la Llera aNational Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management (CIGIDEN), CONICYT/FONDAP/15110017, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago 7820436, Chile, alan.poulos@cigiden.cl, mauricio.monsalve@cigiden.cl, natalia.zamora@cigiden.cl, jcllera@ing.puc.clbAlso at Department of Structural and Geotechnical Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago 7820436, Chile. Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 27 Nov 2018 Online Issn: 1943-3573 Print Issn: 0037-1106 © Seismological Society of America Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2019) 109 (1): 66–74. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170160 Article history First Online: 27 Nov 2018 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Alan Poulos, Mauricio Monsalve, Natalia Zamora, Juan Carlos de la Llera; An Updated Recurrence Model for Chilean Subduction Seismicity and Statistical Validation of Its Poisson Nature. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2018;; 109 (1): 66–74. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170160 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyBulletin of the Seismological Society of America Search Advanced Search Abstract Earthquake recurrence models are the basis of seismic hazard analysis and seismic risk evaluation of physical infrastructure. They are based on statistical analysis of earthquake occurrence data available in a specific geographical region. This work proposes a new earthquake recurrence model for the interface and intraslab seismicity of the subduction margin along Chile. The model improves some of the shortcomings of previous available models in the region such as the lack of earthquake declustering or the use of magnitude scales inconsistent with modern ground‐motion prediction equations. Significant differences in seismic rates are found with some previous models. Indeed, the resulting frequencies from the Gutenberg–Richter relations are not only similar to some of the previous works, but also one order of magnitude higher and lower than two of the previously reported models. Because one of the strongest assumptions in earthquake occurrence models is that they follow a homogeneous Poisson process, this hypothesis is statistically tested herein, finding that the declustered catalog only partially complies with this assumption, showing for instance that the interevent times follow approximately an exponential distribution. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.