Artigo Revisado por pares

The effects of multiyear and seasonal weather factors on incidence of Lyme disease and its vector in New York State

2019; Elsevier BV; Volume: 665; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.123

ISSN

1879-1026

Autores

Shao Lin, Srishti Shrestha, Melissa A. Prusinski, Jennifer White, Gary Lukacik, Maggie Smith, Jianhai Lu, Bryon Backenson,

Tópico(s)

Zoonotic diseases and public health

Resumo

More frequent extreme weather and warmer weather due to climate change might change the spatiotemporal distributions of vector-borne diseases, including Lyme disease. However, limited studies have examined the associations of Lyme disease and its vectors with weather factors, especially multi-year and multi-weather factors related to vector life cycle. We investigated the associations between multi-year, unique weather indicators (relevant to tick and host activities) and Lyme disease incidence or documented I. scapularis encounters in New York State (NYS). Using a generalized estimating equation model, we linked Lyme disease and tick (I. scapularis) data, obtained from the NYS Department of Health (NYSDOH) Communicable Disease Surveillance and Tick Identification Service, with weather data. We used a season-specific exposure index by considering days in different seasons with certain temperature and precipitation ranges, summer Palmer Hydrological Drought Index, and fitted linear regression models using generalized estimating equations. Lyme disease and I. scapularis encounters were modestly correlated (Spearman correlation = 0.60, p-value 75 °F in the previous year was associated with 2% increase in summer disease counts. Mild winter days were associated with an increase in summer tick encounters. Extended spring and summer days and mild winter temperatures appear to increase Lyme disease cases and tick exposure risk in NYS.

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