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Potential impacts of climate change and humans on the trophic network organization of estuarine food webs

2019; Inter-Research; Volume: 616; Linguagem: Inglês

10.3354/meps12932

1616-1599

Catarina Vinagre, María José Costa, SA Wood, R. J. Williams, JA Dunne,

Parasite Biology and Host Interactions

MEPS Marine Ecology Progress Series Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsTheme Sections MEPS 616:13-24 (2019) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps12932 Potential impacts of climate change and humans on the trophic network organization of estuarine food webs Catarina Vinagre1,*, Maria J. Costa1, Spencer A. Wood2, Richard J. Williams3, Jennifer A. Dunne4 1MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749- 016 Lisboa, Portugal 2School for Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA 3VibrantData Inc., 943 Clay Street, San Francisco, CA 94108, USA 4Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501, USA *Corresponding author: cmvinagre@fc.ul.pt ABSTRACT: The aim of this study was to compare estuarine food web network structure in the past, present and future, in a climate warming context, while also taking the trophic role of humans into account. Three versions of the Tagus Estuary (Portugal) food web were compiled representing its past (1970s), present (2000s) and future (2100s) trophic organization in relation to losses and gains of taxa and feeding links due to climate change. Although the species richness of the Tagus Estuary food web is expected to increase from past to present to future, along with links and mean links per species, due to a net gain of primarily fish species, there is little anticipated change in the structure of the food web. Unlike all but a few previously published food webs, the Tagus dataset explicitly includes humans, and compared to other predators in the food web, humans are supergeneralists that feed on an increasing fraction of available taxa from the past to the future, up to 38% of species by the 2100s. Such an increase in human impact results from many of the projected new species being commercial species in their current range. In addition, a supergeneralist shark, the milkshark Rhizoprionodon acutus, is predicted to enter the system in the future under climate change. Since the milkshark is likely to have a similar diet to humans, it may amplify the pressure on species already under fishing pressure and alter the function and stability of the Tagus estuary food web. Similar phenomena can occur at other mid-latitude estuaries. KEY WORDS: Niche model · Probabilistic niche model · Estuarine environments · Anthropogenic impact Full text in pdf format Supplementary material PreviousNextCite this article as: Vinagre C, Costa MJ, Wood SA, Williams RJ, Dunne JA (2019) Potential impacts of climate change and humans on the trophic network organization of estuarine food webs. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 616:13-24. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps12932 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in MEPS Vol. 616. Online publication date: May 09, 2019 Print ISSN: 0171-8630; Online ISSN: 1616-1599 Copyright © 2019 Inter-Research.