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A realistic expectation of sea level rise in the Mexican Caribbean

2019; Elsevier BV; Volume: 4; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.joes.2019.06.003

2096-675X

Alberto Boretti,

Climate variability and models

This paper provides a realistic estimation of the sea level rise by 2050 and by 2100 in the Mexican Caribbean, and more specifically in the North–East side of the Yucatan peninsula, in between Cancun and Playa del Carmen, where the most part of the touristic developments of the Yucatan is located. The forecast is based on the relative sea level result for Key West, the closest long-term trend (LTT) tide gauge, the relative sea level results for all the other LTT tide gauge records of the world, and the absolute velocity of GPS domes located close to the Key West tide gauge, and in between Cancun and Playa del Carmen. The likely change of the sea level is 67–76 mm higher by 2050, and 201–223 mm higher by 2100, with reference to the values of 2018.