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Forecasting the Full Distribution of Earthquake Numbers Is Fair, Robust, and Better

2019; Seismological Society of America; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1785/0220180374

1938-2057

Shyam Nandan, Guy Ouillon, Didier Sornette, Stefan Wiemer,

Geochemistry and Geologic Mapping

Research Article| June 12, 2019 Forecasting the Full Distribution of Earthquake Numbers Is Fair, Robust, and Better Shyam Nandan; Shyam Nandan Corresponding Author aSwiss Seismological Service, ETH Zürich, Sonneggstrasse 5, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland, nandans@ethz.chstefan.wiemer@sed.ethz.ch Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Guy Ouillon; Guy Ouillon bLithophyse, 4 rue de l'Ancien Sénat, 06300 Nice, France, Ouillon@aol.com Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Didier Sornette; Didier Sornette cDepartment of Management, Technology and Economics, ETH Zürich, Scheuchzerstrasse 7, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland, dsornette@ethz.ch Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Stefan Wiemer Stefan Wiemer aSwiss Seismological Service, ETH Zürich, Sonneggstrasse 5, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland, nandans@ethz.chstefan.wiemer@sed.ethz.ch Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Shyam Nandan Corresponding Author aSwiss Seismological Service, ETH Zürich, Sonneggstrasse 5, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland, nandans@ethz.chstefan.wiemer@sed.ethz.ch Guy Ouillon bLithophyse, 4 rue de l'Ancien Sénat, 06300 Nice, France, Ouillon@aol.com Didier Sornette cDepartment of Management, Technology and Economics, ETH Zürich, Scheuchzerstrasse 7, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland, dsornette@ethz.ch Stefan Wiemer aSwiss Seismological Service, ETH Zürich, Sonneggstrasse 5, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland, nandans@ethz.chstefan.wiemer@sed.ethz.ch Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 12 Jun 2019 Online Issn: 1938-2057 Print Issn: 0895-0695 © Seismological Society of America Seismological Research Letters (2019) 90 (4): 1650–1659. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180374 Article history First Online: 12 Jun 2019 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Shyam Nandan, Guy Ouillon, Didier Sornette, Stefan Wiemer; Forecasting the Full Distribution of Earthquake Numbers Is Fair, Robust, and Better. Seismological Research Letters 2019;; 90 (4): 1650–1659. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180374 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietySeismological Research Letters Search Advanced Search ABSTRACT Forecasting the full distribution of the number of earthquakes is revealed to be inherently superior to forecasting their mean. Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is also shown to yield robust projections in the presence of surprise large earthquakes, which in the past have strongly deteriorated the scores of existing models. We show this with pseudoprospective experiments on synthetic as well as real data from the Advanced National Seismic System database for California, with earthquakes with magnitude larger than 2.95 that occurred between the period 1971 and 2016. Our results call in question the testing methodology of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), which amounts to assuming a Poisson distribution of earthquake numbers, which is known to be a poor representation of the heavy‐tailed distribution of earthquake numbers. Using a spatially varying epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, we demonstrate a remarkable stability of the forecasting performance, when using the full distribution of earthquake numbers for the forecasts, even in the presence of large earthquakes such as Mw 7.1 Hector Mine, Mw 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah, Mw 6.6 Sam Simeon earthquakes, or in the presence of intense swarm activity in northwest Nevada in 2014. Although our results have been derived for ETAS‐type models, we propose that all earthquake forecasting models of any type should embrace the full distribution of earthquake numbers, such that their true forecasting potential is revealed. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.