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Recent Dynamics of Crude Oil Prices

2006; International Monetary Fund; Volume: 06; Issue: 299 Linguagem: Inglês

10.5089/9781451865592.001

2227-8885

Noureddine Krichene,

Monetary Policy and Economic Impact

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy.Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.Crude oil prices have been on a run-up spree in recent years.Their dynamics were characterized by high volatility, high intensity jumps, and strong upward drift, indicating that oil markets were constantly out-of-equilibrium.An explanation of the oil price process in terms of the underlying fundamentals of oil markets and world economy was provided, viewing pressure on oil prices mainly as a result of rigid crude oil supply and an expanding world demand for crude oil.A change in the oil price process parameters would require a change in the underlying fundamentals.Market expectations, extracted from call and put option prices, anticipated no change, in the short term, in the underlying fundamentals.Markets expected oil prices to remain volatile and jumpy, and with higher probabilities, to rise, rather than fall, above the expected mean.