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IBD prevalence in Lothian, Scotland, derived by capture–recapture methodology

2019; BMJ; Volume: 68; Issue: 11 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1136/gutjnl-2019-318936

1468-3288

Gareth‐Rhys Jones, Mathew Lyons, Nikolas Plevris, Philip Jenkinson, Cathy Bisset, Christopher Burgess, Shahida Din, James Fulforth, Paul Henderson, Gwo‐Tzer Ho, Kathryn Kirkwood, Colin Noble, Alan G. Shand, David C. Wilson, Ian Arnott, Charlie W. Lees,

Hepatitis B Virus Studies

Objective IBD prevalence is estimated to be rising, but no detailed, recent UK data are available. The last reported prevalence estimate in the UK was 0.40% in 2003. We aimed to establish the current, and project future, prevalence in Lothian, Scotland. Design We conducted an all-age multiparameter search strategy using inpatient IBD international classification of disease (ICD-10) coding (K50/51)(1997–2018), IBD pathology coding (1990–2018), primary and secondary care prescribing data (2009–2018) and a paediatric registry, (1997–2018) to identify ‘possible’ IBD cases up to 31/08/2018. Diagnoses were manually confirmed through electronic health record review as per Lennard-Jones/Porto criteria. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression was applied to forecast prevalence to 01/08/2028. Results In total, 24 601 possible IBD cases were identified of which 10 499 were true positives. The point prevalence for IBD in Lothian on 31/08/2018 was 784/100 000 (UC 432/100 000, Crohn’s disease 284/100 000 and IBD unclassified (IBDU) 68/100 000). Capture–recapture methods identified an additional 427 ‘missed’ cases (95% CI 383 to 477) resulting in a ‘true’ prevalence of 832/100 000 (95% CI 827 to 837). Prevalence increased by 4.3% per year between 2008 and 2018 (95% CI +3.7 to +4.9%, p<0.0001). ARIMA modelling projected a point prevalence on 01/08/2028 of 1.02% (95% CI 0.97% to 1.07%) that will affect an estimated 1.53% (95% CI 1.37% to 1.69%) of those >80 years of age. Conclusions We report a rigorously validated IBD cohort with all-age point prevalence on 31/08/2018 of 1 in 125, one of the highest worldwide.