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Distribution models for Ascia monuste and the host Brassica oleracea var. capitata

2019; Wiley; Volume: 143; Issue: 9 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1111/jen.12675

1439-0418

Abraão Almeida Santos, Katja Hogendoorn, Rodrigo Soares Ramos, Marcelo Coutinho Picanço,

Insect Pheromone Research and Control

Abstract The butterfly Ascia monuste L. (Lepidoptera: Pieridae) is a specialist pest of brassica crops in neotropical regions where it significantly impacts crop production. Understanding the actual and potential distribution of the pest and its hosts in current and future climates may help government agencies to mitigate and manage potential incursions. Here, we use MaxEnt algorithm to model the current distribution of both A. monuste and its host, Brassica oleracea var. capitata L. (cabbage) and then model the likely impact of projected climate change (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios) on their potential future distributions. While A. monuste is currently restricted to the American continent, we show that under current conditions the potential distribution of both the butterfly and cabbage includes areas of Africa, Asia, Oceania and Europe to some extent. The annual temperature range and mean annual temperature were the strongest predictors of the distribution of both species. Under a projected climate change scenario, suitable areas in the tropical climate zone are expected to decrease for both species. However, in temperate regions, the suitable area for cabbage is expected to increase but will remain unsuitable for the pest. Our results highlight the need for strategies to prevent the introduction of A. monuste to other areas of the tropical climate zone and for the development of management practices in the neotropical region.