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Relationship between ZCL and Climatic and Environmental Conditions in Central Tunisia

2014; National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences; Volume: 2014; Issue: 1 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1289/isee.2014.p2-460

2169-2181

Hédia Bellali, Chahida Harizi, Aicha Hechaichi, Refka Zaghouani,

Mediterranean and Iberian flora and fauna

Relationship between ZCL and Climatic and Environmental Conditions in Central TunisiaAbstract Number:1922 Hedia Bellali*, Chahida Harizi, Aicha Hechaichi, and Refka Zaghouani Hedia Bellali* Epidemiology and statistics service, A Mami hospital, Ariana, Tunisia, Medical university of Tunis, Tunisia, Tunisia, E-mail Address: [email protected] , Chahida Harizi Epidemiology and statistics service, A Mami hospital, Ariana, Tunisia, Tunisia, E-mail Address: [email protected] , Aicha Hechaichi Epidemiology and statistics service, A Mami hospital, Ariana, Tunisia, Tunisia, E-mail Address: [email protected] , and Refka Zaghouani Epidemiology and statistics service, A Mami hospital, Ariana, Tunisia, Tunisia, E-mail Address: [email protected] AbstractBackground: The aim of this study was to point out climate and environmental conditions which are closely correlated with outbreaks of ZCL in Tunisia in order to implement strategy to predict and control epidemics.Methods: An active system of epidemiological surveillance of human cases of ZCL among the population of the area was established in July 2009 to collect the number of new cases per month. Data of climatic factors (temperature, rainfall, wind speed ...) were collected through the installation of a weather monitoring station in the study area. Rodent's density was estimated from their monthly activities. We calculated for each month the corresponding averages of these parameters 3, 6 and 9 months ago and 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years ago. Simple correlation and negative binomial regression were used to analyze the association between the number of cases of ZCL and bioclimatic and environmental factors.Results: Between July 2009 and January 2014, we collected 802 new cases of ZCL. We showed positive correlation between the monthly number of cases of ZCL and the average temperatures of the three and six months ago and the average rainfall one year ago. Higher correlation coefficients were observed with the parameters of the previous six months, especially for the mean temperature (r=0.557, p<10-3). The average density of rodents for each month was correlated with average rainfall of the last year. Multivariate analysis showed positive association of ZCL with the mean temperature, average of the last 6 months (OR=1.65, 95% CI: 1.49-1.83) and the average of rainfall of the 3 previous years (OR=1.25, 95% CI: 1.07-1.44).Conclusions: We demonstrated positive correlations between the number of cases of ZCL and bioclimatic factors. Monitoring temperature and rainfall can be used to predict ZCL epidemics well in advance and therefore implement strategies for prevention and control to reduce the extent of the outbreak.