A Resource Constrained Environment: A Primer to Thinking about Force Structure Change
2011; The MIT Press; Volume: 91; Issue: 6 Linguagem: Inglês
ISSN
0026-4148
Autores Tópico(s)Defense, Military, and Policy Studies
ResumoAnd I must tell you, when it comes to predicting the nature and location of next military engagements, since Vietnam, record has been perfect. We have never once gotten it right, from the Mayaguez to Grenada, Panama, Somalia, the Balkans, Haiti, Kuwait, Iraq, and more-we had no idea a year before any of these missions that we would be so engaged. -Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, 25 February 2011 In the past, such as after the Vietnam War, government applied cuts to defense across the board, resulting in a force that was undersized and underfunded relative to its missions and responsibilities. This process has historically led to outcomes that weaken rather than strengthen national security-and which ultimately cost Nation more when it must quickly rearm to confront new threats. I am determined not to repeat the mistakes of the past. -Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, 3 August 2011 The fall and winter of 2011-2012 will bring dynamic change to the Army through two interrelated items: the results of the Comprehensive Strategy Review-directed by President Obama1-and the initial implementation of significant budgetary cuts to the Department of Defense.2 Secretary Panetta stated that in the past our government applied cuts to defense across the board resulting in a force that was undersized and underfunded relative to its missions. . . . I am determined not to repeat the mistakes of the past.3 The secretary's statement can serve as a clarion call, or it can be seen as a harbinger of doom. Budget reductions will likely hit the Army harder than the other services given the anticipated reduction of Overseas Contingency Operations funding as well as base budget. The obvious budgetary target within the Army is force structure. Force structure costs generate large budget obligations and, therefore, provide a quick way to reduce long-term costs. However, the anticipated reduction in end strength also provides the opportunity to transform the Army to accomplish mission requirements at best value. In short, the Army will need to make force structure decisions informed by cost versus benefit valuations. These valuations for future requirements will require assumptions, which can increase risk. As such, a continuous review of assumptions and risks must underpin the decisions made en route to a best-value force. Failure to do so increases the probability of developing a lean, but ultimately wrong, force for the security environment. A disciplined, fact-based, and objective approach-a logic framework- should inform the perpetual decisions affecting future Army force shaping and sizing options. There are several considerations in thinking about force structure. Foremost are projections of the mission sets the forces must accomplish. Second are assumptions about the resources available across time to develop the force for the projected mission set. Third are the shaping aspects of force design and force mix. These aspects are not binary variables, but sliding scales, which in combination provide a descriptive framework of the optimal force structure for the expected missions within resource limitations. In reaching an optimal force structure, requisite trade-offs leave differences between the Army's assigned missions and its resources. Within these deltas, planners identify risk and consider mitigations. Therefore, risk identification and associated mitigation strategies make up the fourth consideration for force structure. Finally, there are common assertions that may cloud development and critical assessment of proposed force structure solutions, and addressing those factors is important. Force Structure Purpose What is the force supposed to be able to do? This is the overriding question for force development and warrants a simple defense policy answer, but discerning current expectations is less clear. The president of the United States-directed comprehensive strategy review will likely add clarity once released. …
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