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BIBTEX RIS

Evaluation of the usefulness of Aedes aegypti rapid larval surveys to anticipate seasonal dengue transmission between 2012–2015 in Fortaleza, Brazil

2020; Elsevier BV; Volume: 205; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1016/j.actatropica.2020.105391

1873-6254

Benjamin MacCormack-Gelles, Antonio S. Lima Neto, Geziel dos Santos de Sousa, Osmar José do Nascimento, Márcia C. Castro,

Zoonotic diseases and public health

Rapid larval surveys have been mandated in nearly every urban Brazilian municipality and promoted by the Pan American Health Organization. These surveys purport to classify arbovirus transmission risk as a basis to triage local surveillance and vector control operations, yet no previous analyses have determined relative risk associated with marginal changes in infestation at administrative and temporal scales relevant to vector control. We estimated associations between entomological indices from six larval surveys and daily incidence rates of confirmed dengue cases in Fortaleza, Brazil using models adjusted for rainfall, and indicators of spatial association. Poor correspondence between infestation and incidence indicates that these surveys may systematically mislead vector control activities and treatment strategies in Fortaleza and in similar cities throughout Latin America. The co-circulation of multiple arboviruses enhances the importance of determining the true informational value of these surveys, and of identifying complementary tools to discern local and inter-annual transmission risk.