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Estimating the Asymptomatic Proportion of 2019 Novel Coronavirus onboard the Princess Cruises Ship, 2020

2020; Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1101/2020.02.20.20025866

Kenji Mizumoto, Katsushi Kagaya, Alexander E. Zarebski, Gerardo Chowell,

COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts

Abstract The potential infectiousness of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases together with a substantial fraction of asymptomatic infections among all infections, have been highlighted in clinical studies. We conducted statistical modeling analysis to derive the delay-adjusted asymptomatic proportion of the positive COVID-19 infections onboard the Princess Cruises ship along with the timeline of infections. We estimated the asymptomatic proportion at 17.9% (95% CrI: 15.5%–20.2%), with most of the infections occurring before the start of the 2-week quarantine.