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Initial Simulation of SARS-CoV2 Spread and Intervention Effects in the Continental US

2020; Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory; Linguagem: Inglês

10.1101/2020.03.21.20040303

Sen Pei, Jeffrey Shaman,

Climate variability and models

Here we use a metapopulation model applied at county resolution to simulate the spread and growth of COVID-19 incidence in the continental United States. We calibrate the model against county-level incidence data collected between February 21, 2020 and March 13, 2020, and estimate epidemiological parameters including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness 1 . Using the calibrated model, we project the outbreak in the continental US for 180 days after March 13, 2020, and evaluate the effects of social distancing and travel restrictions on the outbreak.