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Predict the particulate matter concentrations in 128 cities of China

2020; Springer Science+Business Media; Volume: 13; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1007/s11869-020-00819-5

1873-9326

Meng Dun, Zhicun Xu, Lifeng Wu, Yingjie Yang,

Grey System Theory Applications

To predict the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 in the 128 cities of China, the discrete gray prediction model with fractional order accumulation (DFGM(1,1)) was used to predict the annual average PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations from 2019 to 2023. The result is as following: the annual average PM2.5 concentrations of Xi'an, Xuzhou, Ordos, Jingmen, Meizhou, Huizhou, Panzhihua, Kunming, Jixi, and Yichun are increasing from 2019 to 2023. The annual average PM2.5 concentrations in the 118 other cities are decreasing from 2019 to 2023. While the annual average PM10 concentrations of Taiyuan, Ordos, Dongguan, Karamay, Foshan, Yichun, Qitaihe, Jinzhou, and Heihe are increasing from 2019 to 2023, the annual average PM10 concentrations in the 119 other cities are decreasing from 2019 to 2023.