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Predicting the cumulative number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in China from early data

2020; Arizona State University; Volume: 17; Issue: 4 Linguagem: Inglês

10.3934/mbe.2020172

ISSN

1551-0018

Autores

Zhihua Liu, Pierre Magal, Ousmane Seydi, Glenn F. Webb,

Tópico(s)

Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research

Resumo

<abstract> <p>We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement, the identification and isolation of unreported cases, and the impact of asymptomatic infectious cases.</p> </abstract>

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