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Reappraisal of the Climate Impacts of Ozone‐Depleting Substances

2020; American Geophysical Union; Volume: 47; Issue: 20 Linguagem: Inglês

10.1029/2020gl088295

1944-8007

Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O’Connor, Ben Johnson, Guang Zeng, Jane P. Mulcahy, Jonny Williams, J. Teixeira, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Larry W. Horowitz, Vaishali Naïk, Lori T. Sentman, Makoto Deushi, Susanne E. Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Drew Shindell, Douglas E. Kinnison,

Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics

Abstract We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone‐depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large intermodel spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an “emergent constraint” approach whereby we link the radiative forcing to ozone declines measured and simulated during 1979–2000, excluding two volcanically perturbed periods. During this period, ozone‐depleting substances were increasing, and several merged satellite‐based climatologies document the ensuing decline of total‐column ozone. Using these analyses, we find an effective radiative forcing of − 0.05 to 0.13 W m −2 . Our best estimate (0.04 W m −2 ) is on the edge of the “likely” range given by the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC of 0.03 to 0.33 W m −2 but is in better agreement with two other literature results.